沪铜日报：震荡偏强-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, remaining relatively strong during the day. After the significant increase in the previous period, the downstream acceptance was average, and currently, the market is mainly oscillating at a high level. The subsequent momentum depends on the Fed's interest rate cut and the release of macro - data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a growth rate of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. This week, as copper prices rose, the profit of copper products was squeezed. The production enthusiasm of copper strip was weak, and the capacity utilization rate declined. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders. Copper foil remained at a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and pre - demand from new - energy vehicles [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, remaining relatively strong during the day. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was 55 yuan/ton. On December 17, 2025, the LME official price was $11,732/ton, and the spot premium was - $12/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on December 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 44,700 tons, 227 tons less than the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, 3,300 tons less than the previous period. LME copper inventory was 164,300 tons, 325 tons more than the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 457,000 short tons, 2,348 short tons more than the previous period [11]