PP日报：震荡运行-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there may be new PP capacity coming on - stream this year and the peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [1][4] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, Sinopec Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a drop, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and moved in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6,263 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,312 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,279 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.45%. The open interest increased by 4,001 lots to 523,495 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions remained stable. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [6]