2026年短纤期货年度行情展望：供应承压关注开工节奏，旺季正套

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - fiber futures price in 2026 is expected to be weak first and then strong in the first half of the year, and may decline again due to supply pressure resonance in the second half or Q4. The inflection point in the first half focuses on the negative feedback of high polyester inventory after the Spring Festival, and the second half focuses on the production resonance of PX and short - fiber segments. [3][77] - The short - fiber market will see an increase in both supply and demand in 2026, but supply growth will be more significant. [77] - When considering the short - fiber - bottle chip spread, it is recommended to evaluate them separately and look for spread opportunities when the supply rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers. [3][78] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Short - fiber Futures Trend Review 1.1 Short - fiber Spot and Futures Price Trend Review - In 2025, short - fiber prices experienced a pattern of volatile decline, a sharp drop due to tariff issues followed by a quick rebound, and then a shift to a volatile and weak trend. Macro and cost factors dominated the market for most of the year, and the short - fiber's fundamentals sometimes echoed macro issues and sometimes just followed the market passively. [6] - The price fluctuations were significantly affected by macro factors, with an increased positive correlation between the commodity and stock markets. The processing fee amplitude narrowed, and the basis and monthly spread mostly maintained a neutral - to - weak oscillation. [9] 1.2 2025 Short - fiber Volatility Performance Review - In 2025, short - fiber volatility increased significantly in the first half due to the repeated US tariff policies, and narrowed in the second half. The volatility remained at a low level since 2021, mainly because of the increased supply elasticity and profit compression caused by the expansion of the industrial chain's mid - and downstream sectors. [13] 2. Cost - end Operation Logic and Viewpoint Summary 2.1 Naphtha: Transition from Shortage to Tight Balance - In 2026, naphtha supply will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The Asian naphtha market will be in a tight - balance state in the first half, with a slight de - stocking trend, and may move towards oversupply in the second half. [16] 2.2 PX, PTA: Focus on Supply Fluctuations, PX is Stronger - The unilateral prices of PX and PTA will be weak in the first half and strong in the second half. It is recommended to go long on PXN at low prices, short the PTA - PX spread, and conduct basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage. The potential seasonal negative factor in the first half is the poor domestic clothing and export orders after the Spring Festival, leading to unexpected inventory accumulation. [17][18] 2.3 MEG: Overcapacity, Focus on Unplanned Production Cuts and Cost Bottoming - Ethylene glycol has overcapacity, and unplanned production cuts are needed to reverse the trend of significant inventory increase. The annual consumption of ethylene glycol is estimated to be 2.95 million tons in 2026, while the domestic production capacity will gradually rise to 3.25 million tons. [19][20] 3. 2026 Short - fiber Futures Operation Logic 3.1 Supply Side: Many New Devices, Focus on Fluctuations Caused by Upstream Anti - involution and Industry Self - discipline - In 2026, there are many planned short - fiber devices in China, with production pressure concentrated in the second half of the year. The annual capacity growth rate is expected to be 11% year - on - year. The actual supply rhythm will be neutral in the first half, and the pressure will be fully realized in the second half. [21][31] - Anti - involution and industry self - discipline are expected to be the main variables for seasonal supply - side fluctuations. The non - standard price spread may face downward pressure, which will affect the comprehensive profit of short - fiber factories. [23][27][31] 3.2 Demand Side: Robust Domestic Demand, Strong Export 3.2.1 Domestic Demand: Steady Growth in Total, Limited Drive of New Consumption Directions on Fiber Consumption - The growth trend of investment in textile, clothing, and apparel industries is weakening. The growth rate of the textile, clothing, and home - textile sectors is expected to decline in 2026. The overall growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand in 2026 is estimated to be around 4% - 5%. [32][46] 3.2.2 Yarn: Regional Differentiation, High Competition Pattern - In the yarn - spinning segment, attention should be paid to the incremental demand from regions such as Xinjiang and Southwest China, as well as the substitution of ring - spinning by air - vortex spinning. The cost advantages of these two factors may intensify the processing fee competition in the main yarn production areas. [47] - Xinjiang's textile industry is in a high - growth cycle, and its textile industry chain is extending from cotton - spinning to blended - spinning and polyester. Enterprises in the East are expected to face continuous competition pressure from low - cost products in Xinjiang. [50][51] 3.2.3 Export: Easing Tariffs, Continuous "Going Global" of Downstream Enterprises, Optimistic Short - fiber Export - The reduction of terminal export tariffs to the US and the stable export chain expectations are beneficial to China's long - term textile and clothing exports. In 2026, the competitiveness of China's textile and clothing exports to the US is expected to increase marginally. [57][58] - The overseas demand in Europe and the US is good, and the import volume provides support. The export of textile machinery has increased significantly, and the direct export demand for polyester has expanded. In 2025, short - fiber exports increased by 29.5% year - on - year, and the export growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 20%. [60][62][74] 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The short - fiber price in 2026 will be weak first and then strong in the first half, and may decline again in the second half or Q4. The processing fee will be compressed, mainly transferred to the PX segment, and there are opportunities for basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage in the first half. In the second half, pay attention to the production progress of PX and short - fiber segments and the possibility of joint production cuts in the off - season to trade the processing fee spread. [77] - For the short - fiber - bottle chip spread, it is recommended to evaluate them separately in 2026, and look for spread opportunities when the supply rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers. [78]