2025年1-11月财政数据解读：11月财政收支双缓，与基本面放缓一致

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In November 2025, the national general public budget revenue showed a year-on-year growth of -0.02%, down from 3.2% previously, indicating a significant slowdown in revenue growth due to economic fundamentals[1] - The national general public budget expenditure in November 2025 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.8%[1] - The broad fiscal budget revenue completion rate for January to November 2025 was 85.3%, with a monthly year-on-year decline of 5.2% in November, higher than the same period in 2024[2] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in November 2025 was 11,450 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-tax revenue was 2,576 billion yuan, showing a decline of 10.8%[3] - The corporate income tax turned negative, reflecting a broader economic slowdown, while personal income tax maintained a high growth rate, partly due to enhanced tax collection efforts[4] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in November 2025 decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 18.4%, primarily due to reduced land transfer income[7] - Government fund budget expenditure in November 2025 increased by 2.8% year-on-year, recovering from a previous decline of 38.2%, attributed to accelerated project funding[8] Future Fiscal Outlook - For 2026, there is a potential for a slight increase in the deficit ratio, estimated between 4.0% and 4.2%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.89 trillion to 6.19 trillion yuan[3] - The broad fiscal deficit scale is projected to be around 11.79 trillion to 12.09 trillion yuan, with local special bonds estimated at about 4.4 trillion yuan[3]