2026年橡胶期货年度行情展望：全球进入去库周期，全年关注波段机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From an annual perspective, the center of rubber prices is expected to rise slightly, but both upward and downward spaces are limited. Throughout the year, the supply - demand rhythm is mismatched, making it difficult to form a trend - based market. Instead, attention can be paid to volatility opportunities [2][3]. - In the destocking cycle with decreasing supply and increasing demand, the market has a consistent long - term bullish sentiment. Buying at low prices has a relatively high cost - performance ratio. The annual high can refer to seasonal highs, such as around September when weather disturbances are frequent and at the end of the year when automobile sales peak [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tianjiao (Natural Rubber) Trend Review 3.1.1 Review of Futures and Spot Price Trends - From the beginning of the year to March 3, rubber prices fluctuated. RU weighted closing price fell 0.23%, while NR rose 3.08%. The initial decline was due to increased supply expectations and weak downstream demand, and the subsequent rebound was caused by weather disturbances and increased tire enterprise stocking [5]. - From March 3 to May 30, rubber experienced three rounds of decline. RU fell 23.91%, and NR fell 23.98%. The decline was mainly due to factors such as increased supply, high tire inventory, trade conflicts, and anti - dumping investigations [6]. - From May 30 to September 8, rubber prices generally rose. RU rose 19.63%, and NR rose 11.48%. The rise was due to delayed supply increase, improved downstream demand, and macro - level positive factors [7]. - From September 8 to November 21, rubber prices fluctuated downward. RU fell 5.71%, and NR fell 5.80%. The decline was caused by increased negative factors on the demand side and expected supply increase [8]. 3.1.2 Review of Volatility Performance - By November 21, 2025, rubber experienced four high - volatility periods. The first was from January to mid - February, mainly due to supply - demand tightness and market sentiment. The second was in early April, caused by the US's unexpected tariff increase. The third was from late May to mid - June, affected by a series of events. The fourth was from late July to mid - August, dominated by macro factors [13][14][15]. 3.2 2026 Tianjiao Operation Logic: Finding Low - Buying Opportunities in the Destocking Cycle, with Annual Highs Possibly Referring to Seasonal Patterns 3.2.1 Supply Side - Thai rubber inventory is expected to remain low at the beginning of 2026. Due to weather factors and delayed order fulfillment, the low - inventory situation may persist until the second quarter of 2026. Three major Thai rubber processing companies plan to expand their production capacity by 620,000 tons in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of about 13.35% [19][20]. - Yunnan's concentrated latex processing plants are expanding, and the diversion of concentrated latex is becoming more common. In 2025 - 2026, Yunnan's Xishuangbanna plans to add 50,000 tons of concentrated latex processing capacity [21]. - In 2025, there was rainfall interference in major rubber - producing areas, but most areas saw an increase in production due to factors such as increased tapping willingness. Currently, raw material supply has certain elasticity, but in the context of aging rubber trees in Southeast Asia, prices need to remain high to maintain production [24][37][38]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The peak of China's tire industry's overseas capacity expansion is over. The first - round overseas layout was mainly in Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries, the second - round was closer to the core consumer markets in Europe and the United States, and the third - round may target emerging markets in Africa and South America. After 2026, the planned tire production is expected to decrease, and the impact on domestic tire exports is expected to weaken [43][45][51]. - The EU's anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on Chinese tires are the biggest risk for exports. If the anti - dumping measures are implemented, it will have a negative impact on China's tire exports in 2026, especially on passenger car tires. However, Chinese tire companies have experience in dealing with such situations and may take measures such as diversifying exports and re - exporting [55][63][64]. - Domestic tire demand is highly dependent on policies. In 2025, policies such as trade - in subsidies significantly boosted automobile sales, but the decline in subsidies may lead to a slowdown in demand. Although there are factors such as demand pre - release, the overall policy direction of boosting consumption remains unchanged, and domestic demand is expected to gradually stabilize [73][80][82]. 3.2.3 Futures - Spot Price Difference - The absolute valuation of RU is at a relatively low position in the historical range, which may attract long - term downstream buyers [84]. - The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubber has been narrowing, but this trend may slow down in 2026. Dark - colored rubber may be affected by factors such as African tariff adjustments, potential inclusion in alternative delivery products, and EUDR delays. Light - colored rubber may be supported by factors such as reduced raw material imports from Laos and local concentrated latex expansion in Yunnan [88][89]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the upward and downward spaces of rubber prices are limited. The supply - demand rhythm is mismatched throughout the year, making it difficult to form a trend - based market. Instead, attention can be paid to volatility opportunities [94][96]. - In the first half of the year, raw material prices are difficult to decline, but demand is under pressure. In the second half of the year, supply will increase, and there will be more positive factors on the demand side [96]. - The investment outlook is to focus on band trading. At the beginning of the year, beware of the risk of EU anti - dumping measures and hold positions cautiously. Buying at low prices has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and the annual high can refer to seasonal highs [4][97].