2026年烧碱期货年度行情展望：高库存下的负反馈与减产博弈

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the core contradiction in the caustic soda market will revolve around the conflict between "high supply and high inventory" and "negative feedback in the industrial chain due to low profits in the alumina industry." The market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bull market, and the annual price center will be under pressure, likely oscillating within a wide range formed by the "cash - flow cost line" and "downstream periodic restocking." The market will feature an interweaving of "normal pressure" and "pulse rebounds," with the greatest price elasticity and uncertainty coming from unexpected production cuts by chlor - alkali enterprises. Key factors to track include high - frequency inventory data, the pace of alumina production capacity launch, and marginal changes in industrial profits [2][67]. - Domestic terminal demand for caustic soda in China will have limited incremental growth in 2026, while the export market will still show prominent growth. Attention should be paid to short - term supply - demand mismatches in the caustic soda market caused by new alumina production capacity launches and the decline in rigid demand and inventory hoarding due to alumina production cuts. The low - profit situation of caustic soda may lead to unexpected maintenance next year, and major supply - reduction contradictions may come from the passive production cuts of caustic soda caused by PVC. In 2026, the caustic soda delivery rules will be modified, which will change the premium and discount of delivery products and delivery areas, adjust the warehouse receipt trade flow, and intensify the impact of warehouse receipts on the market in the short term [2][67]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 2025 Caustic Soda Trend Review - The caustic soda market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations from expectation - driven to fundamentals - dominated. The annual trend can be divided into four main stages: a trend - based upward movement driven by strong expectations from early January to before the Spring Festival; a negative - feedback downward movement due to high profits and weak demand from after the Spring Festival to early May; an interweaving of cost collapse and rebounds from early May to August; and a continuous bottom - seeking under demand negative feedback and high inventory from September onwards [6]. - First stage (Early January - Before the Spring Festival): Driven by the resonance of strong expectations and reality, including alumina industry capacity expansion, pre - production stocking, supply concerns from planned maintenance in South China, and increased overseas export orders, caustic soda prices rose, and inventory decreased. The futures main - contract price reached a maximum of 3358 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, an increase of about 14.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - Second stage (After the Spring Festival - Early May): The market logic shifted. High profits led to high operating rates, but demand was weak. Non - aluminum demand recovered slowly, alumina enterprises reduced inventory and pressured prices, and South China's maintenance devices resumed production, leading to a downward trend in the market [8]. - Third stage (Early May - August): Prices rebounded due to short - term restocking demand from new alumina production lines in early May, but cost collapse due to falling coal prices and lower electricity prices led to high profits and a "short - profit" trading logic. A rebound from late June to late August was driven by seasonal maintenance and policy expectations, but it did not change the loose supply - demand situation [9]. - Fourth stage (September - Present): In the fourth quarter, the market continued to seek the bottom. Alumina production cuts due to low profits reduced demand, non - aluminum demand was limited, and exports faced pressure. High operating rates during the off - peak maintenance season led to high inventory, and prices hit new lows, falling below 2200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 2026 Caustic Soda Demand Pattern - External demand drives growth, and domestic demand shows differentiation: In 2026, China's caustic soda demand pattern will feature external demand driving growth and domestic demand showing differentiation. The export market will remain the core growth driver, with the driving logic shifting to a "structural supply gap" in resource - rich countries like Indonesia. Domestic demand will vary: the alumina industry will have complex demand for caustic soda, the pulp and paper industry will have limited incremental demand, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable demand, and the printing and dyeing industry will have a stable but un - supportive demand [13]. - Alumina industry: In 2026, China's alumina industry will continue to expand production capacity, with about 13.9 million tons of new capacity planned to be put into production in the first half of the year. However, the industry is facing over - supply, and competition will intensify. The demand for caustic soda will show periodic and structural characteristics, with short - term pulse demand from new capacity launches and long - term suppression due to profit concerns. The overall profit situation of the alumina industry will determine the intensity of its demand for caustic soda, and cost - structure differences will lead to demand differentiation [14][22]. - Pulp and paper industry: In 2026, the global and Chinese pulp industry will face a complex situation of tightening overseas supply and expanding domestic supply. The demand for caustic soda will be mainly rigid, with limited growth elasticity and high cost sensitivity. Although new domestic chemical pulp capacity will be put into production, it will not significantly increase the overall demand for caustic soda [23][27]. - Viscose staple fiber industry: In 2026, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable and rigid demand for caustic soda. The industry has a concentrated supply pattern, stable demand, and expected profit recovery, which will support high operating rates and continuous demand for caustic soda [30][31]. - Printing and dyeing industry: In 2026, the printing and dyeing industry will provide a stable demand base for caustic soda, but its weak profitability will limit its ability to support caustic soda prices. The industry is in a state of low profit or loss, and enterprises will adopt a conservative procurement strategy [35]. - Export market: In 2025, China's caustic soda exports increased significantly, with Indonesia becoming the largest export market. In 2026, exports are expected to continue to grow, with an expected year - on - year increase of over 20% and a total volume expected to exceed 4.5 million tons. However, potential risks include the construction of local production capacity in overseas markets, increased international competition, and uncertain trade policies [37][38]. 3.3 2026 Caustic Soda Supply - Production cuts may exceed expectations: In 2026, the caustic soda supply side will face the coexistence of "certain production capacity expansion" and "uncertain adjustment effects." The overall supply capacity will continue to grow, but the market will focus on the game between fixed costs and fluctuating marginal profits. Cash - flow cost will form a "hard bottom" for prices, and seasonal and policy - related factors will drive price fluctuations [43]. - Expected production capacity and output: In 2026, the caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase by 2.56 million tons, a 5% increase. However, the actual production capacity increase may be about 3% due to the influence of the loss situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries. The annual output is expected to reach or exceed 45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 5% [44]. - Cost and profit: In 2026, the core game on the supply side will revolve around cost and profit. The cost side is expected to provide stronger support, but profit expansion is difficult due to over - supply and weak downstream profitability. The effectiveness of profit - to - supply transmission needs to be verified, and large - scale and long - term active production cuts of caustic soda may depend on the passive production cuts caused by PVC [47]. - Impact of loss in chlorine - consuming downstream industries: The loss of chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC will affect the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn affects the comprehensive profit of caustic soda enterprises. When the comprehensive profit is in deficit, enterprises may reduce production. In 2026, the maintenance intensity in spring and summer may exceed that of this year [50]. - Supply - demand mismatch due to seasonal maintenance and inventory hoarding: Seasonal maintenance, especially from June to August, can ease the supply pressure. However, when the maintenance season ends, supply will increase. High inventory in 2025 has suppressed demand. When the off - season ends and downstream starts to stock up or new alumina production capacity is launched, a supply - demand mismatch may occur [56][59]. 4. Investment Outlook - Single - side trading: In terms of trends, the valuation of caustic soda is under pressure, but it is not advisable to short at the cash - flow cost. Attention should be paid to short - term long - buying opportunities brought by caustic soda supply cuts [3][67]. - Calendar - spread arbitrage: There is a positive - spread window period during the peak maintenance season. Attention should be paid to the rebound driven by production cuts and the corresponding downstream active inventory - hoarding space and rhythm [3][68]. - Key time nodes: After the Spring Festival, around the start of spring maintenance in March, the situation of summer maintenance from June to August, and before the National Day [3][68].