2026年燃料油、低硫燃料油期货行情展望：估值已被重塑，静待明确驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a year of evolution in the supply - demand pattern, the valuations of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region have been completely reshaped and are currently at historical lows, which basically match the current supply - demand situation. In 2026, on the premise of fully reshaped valuations and a return to a tight supply - demand balance, seasonal and sudden events will drive the market [2]. - The sanctions and geopolitical conflicts have led to a gradual decline in Russia's supply. In 2026, Latin America's supply may also change due to refinery startups. The Middle East, as the core region for global high - sulfur component supply, will continue to increase in importance. On the demand side, marine fuel and power generation can still support the valuation of high - sulfur fuel oil, but there is a certain drag from the refining end. For low - sulfur fuel oil, its consumption may have reached the bottom in recent years in 2025, indicating that the drag on the demand side may gradually weaken in 2026. In terms of supply, regions with low elasticity such as Brazil and Indonesia still dominate, and the supply changes in these regions and other regions with high elasticity will cause marginal changes in the market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 2025, due to sanctions on Russia and drone attacks in Ukraine, there was a shortage of high - sulfur supply in Russia, leading to a continuous decline in heavy oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah. High - sulfur prices remained strong. Meanwhile, as Q1 is the off - season for marine fuel demand, the market share of high - sulfur fuel oil continued to rise, and low - sulfur fuel oil was relatively weak both at home and abroad, causing the high - low sulfur spread to narrow rapidly to a historical low [6]. - In Q2, the seasonal demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation and marine fuel was gradually realized, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East further strengthened the strength of the high - sulfur market. High - sulfur prices and cracking reached their annual highs. However, later, the strength comparison between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil began to change. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the full pricing of Russia's supply shortage, the factors supporting the high valuation of high - sulfur fuel oil gradually disappeared. On the low - sulfur side, the centralized maintenance of some major production areas and the adjustment of the yield of gasoline, diesel, and low - sulfur fuel oil by domestic refineries jointly promoted the strengthening of low - sulfur fuel oil at home and abroad. From the end of Q2, the high - low sulfur spread stopped narrowing and rebounded in Q3 [6]. - At the end of the year, the continuous decline in crude oil prices drove down the price center of the entire fuel oil market. The high export volume of fuel oil from the Middle East and the intermittent supply shortage of low - sulfur fuel oil led to a more obvious decline in high - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market, and the high - low sulfur spread remained at the annual high [6]. 3.2 Global Refining Industry Review and Outlook 3.2.1 Global Refined Oil Demand - The demand for global refined oil shows a trend of "new replacing old". Traditional consumption areas such as China and the United States are losing their driving force for global demand growth, while emerging consumption areas such as India and Southeast Asia are becoming new growth drivers. The structural contradictions between different regions or different oil products may be more obvious than the total contradictions and are more likely to break the balance [9][10]. - Seasonal consumption is still an important anchor for demand changes, but it is increasingly affected by sudden events. In 2026, the impact of various sudden events on seasonality needs to be closely monitored [11]. 3.2.2 Global Refining Capacity Changes and Outlook - In H1 2025, due to sanctions, trade wars, and geopolitical conflicts, the refining capacity in some regions declined. However, the rise in the prices of refined oil products gradually repaired refinery profits, and the operating rate rebounded from the bottom. In Q3, the traditional refining maintenance season led to an increase in supply shortages and an upward movement in production profits [32]. - In 2026, traditional refining countries and regions need stable refining profits to maintain a stable operating rate. Russia's production decline is mainly due to sanctions and geopolitical conflicts. The Middle East and India will play an important role in ensuring the stable production of global refined oil, but they also face some challenges such as geopolitical conflicts and sanctions [35][36]. - The rapid increase in refining capacity utilization in H2 2025 may lead to short - term supply surpluses in 2026, causing prices and spreads to fall rapidly from high levels [37]. 3.2.3 Summary - The demand for global refined oil is in a situation of "new replacing old", and seasonality is still the core factor determining demand realization. However, the impact of sudden events on demand needs to be noted. On the supply side, the global refining industry needs to maintain stability in multiple dimensions to ensure a certain capacity utilization rate. The situation at the end of 2025 may reverse in 2026, and uncertainty is the most prominent feature of the current global refined oil market [60]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil 3.3.1 Supply - The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is characterized by "low elasticity and high concentration". Russia's supply is affected by drone attacks and sanctions, and there may be a reduction in exports of 200 - 300 million tons in 2026. The new Dos Bocas refinery in Mexico may reduce the export of heavy components, and Venezuela's supply is also restricted by sanctions [61][62][64]. - The Middle East will play a decisive role in the global high - sulfur fuel oil market. Its supply is relatively stable, and its export direction can be judged by trade arbitrage economics. In 2026, the recovery of Russia's exports will be a marginal variable for the Asia - Pacific market, and attention should be paid to the possible westward flow of Middle East supplies [65][66]. 3.3.2 Demand - The market share of high - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel market continues to increase due to the growth of desulfurization tower installations and the postponement of the IMO's net - zero framework. In the power generation field, high - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage in calorific value cost, but its demand is affected by natural gas supply and climate [71]. - The refining demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in China and India has declined in recent years. In 2026 Q1, the refining demand in these two countries may continue to be weak due to factors such as weakened refining profits and sanctions on Russian fuel oil [74]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil 3.4.1 Supply - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region has a diversified pattern with an increasing concentration. Regions with low elasticity such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Kuwait dominate, and their supply changes will have a significant impact on the market. In addition, regions with high elasticity such as the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and European arbitrage goods also need attention [95][96][98]. - In China, the production of low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the profit difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and refined oil. In 2026, if the cracking of refined oil at home and abroad does not significantly shrink or the cracking of low - sulfur fuel oil does not significantly strengthen, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain at a monthly average of about 1 million tons [99][101]. 3.4.2 Demand - The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil has been under pressure in the past, but there are some marginal changes. In the marine fuel field, the squeezing effect of high - sulfur fuel oil on low - sulfur fuel oil may have reached its limit. In the power generation field, low - sulfur fuel oil still has a certain rigid demand. The refining demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly affected by refining profits [117][118][123]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the change in the supply - demand balance of fuel oil may still come from the supply side. For high - sulfur fuel oil, attention should be paid to whether the supply decline in Russia and Latin America can be filled by the Middle East. For low - sulfur fuel oil, attention should be paid to the production and export volume of regions with large shares and low production elasticity, as well as the supply changes in regions with high elasticity [136]. 3.5.2 Investment Outlook - In 2026, the cracking and spread of fuel oil may continue to decline in Q1 due to the traditional off - season and high inventories. However, the Contango structure of the fuel oil market may provide better upward momentum for the near - month contracts in Q2, especially for high - sulfur fuel oil [137][138]. - The 20 - 100 US dollars/ton range of the high - low sulfur spread in 2025 can be used as a reference for trading in 2026. If overseas refineries resume production and China's refined oil production decreases in Q1, the high - low sulfur spread may decline [139].