2026年瓶片期货年度行情展望：供需好转，先抑后扬

Report Title - "Supply and Demand Improvement, First Decline then Rise - 2026 Annual Outlook for Bottle Chip Futures" [1] Report Core View - In terms of unilateral prices, bottle chips are expected to be weak first and then strong in H1 2026, and there may be a trend change in H2 or Q4 due to weakening cost - end. For structural opportunities, focus on long - spreads during the peak season in H1, and pay attention to the redistribution of profits after the cost weakens in H2. When evaluating the spread between staple fiber and bottle chips, avoid inertial thinking and make separate assessments, and only trade the spread when the supply - side rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers [2][77] 1. 2025 Bottle Chip Futures Trend Review 1.1 Bottle Chip Spot and Futures Price Trend Review - In 2025, bottle chip futures prices were highly correlated with raw material PTA and staple fiber. The main driving factors included Sino - US trade war, geopolitical issues affecting crude oil prices, "anti - involution" expectations and their falsification, and joint production cuts by bottle chip factories. After industry - self - discipline production cuts in July, the processing fee increased compared to the previous year [5] - In different stages, the price was affected by factors such as supply - side concerns, demand - side seasonality, US tariff policies, and geopolitical events. The price showed fluctuations including declines, rebounds, and sideways movements [7] 1.2 Bottle Chip Volatility Performance Review - In H1 2025, bottle chip volatility increased significantly compared to the previous year, mainly due to the repeated US tariffs. In H2, the volatility narrowed, mainly because of increased supply elasticity and compressed profits caused by large - scale expansions in the middle and downstream of the industrial chain, and the stable production after the joint production cuts by leading factories from July [12] 2. Cost - end Operation Logic and View Summary 2.1 Naphtha: Transition from Shortage to Tight Balance - In 2026, naphtha supply will show a pattern of low in H1 and high in H2. The global naphtha supply is expected to have no growth in H1, and may increase in H2 with new refining capacity. The supply growth rate is expected to be less than 1.2%. In H1, the supply - demand balance in Asia will show a slight de - stocking trend, but it is defined as a tight balance and may change due to downstream negative feedback. In H2, factors such as the lightening of ethylene cracking raw materials in Asia may lead to an oversupply [15] 2.2 PX, PTA: Focus on Supply Fluctuations, PX is Relatively Strong - The unilateral prices of PX and PTA will be weak in H1 and strong in H2. It is recommended to go long on PXN at low prices, short the PTA - PX spread, and conduct long - spreads on basis and calendar spreads. In 2026, with a loose monetary and fiscal policy, polyester production is expected to grow by 4% - 6%. In H1, there are maintenance plans for three major private refineries, and the PX supply will tighten during the second - quarter gasoline - blending peak season. Seasonal potential negative factors include poor post - Spring Festival clothing and export orders and unexpected inventory accumulation. In H2, prices may rebound due to demand recovery [16] 2.3 MEG: Over - capacity, Focus on Unplanned Production Cuts and Cost Bottom - building - Ethylene glycol has over - capacity, and unplanned production cuts are needed to reverse the trend of significant inventory increase. Based on a 4% polyester growth rate in 2026, the annual consumption of ethylene glycol is estimated to be 29.5 million tons. The domestic production capacity of ethylene glycol will gradually increase to 32.5 million tons, and the domestic production device operating rate should not exceed 73%. The operating status of marginal coal - based devices is worthy of attention. If large - scale and long - term production cuts of coal - based ethylene glycol devices are observed, it may indicate the bottom of ethylene glycol. After the end of supply - guarantee, attention should be paid to whether coal prices have new trend - changing impacts on the ethylene glycol cost line [18][19][20] 3. 2026 Bottle Chip Operation Logic 3.1 Supply - side: Reduced Supply Pressure and Increased Operating Rate 3.1.1 Fewer New Devices - In 2026, there are few plans for new domestic bottle chip devices. The total new capacity is 700,000 tons, with a growth rate of + 3.2%, significantly lower than this year and the past three years. It is also a low - investment year globally for bottle chips. The supply - side pressure is expected to gradually reduce, and the central operating rate of factories is expected to increase [21] 3.1.2 Focus on the Anti - involution Path of the Cost - end - Pay attention to the continuation of industry self - discipline and anti - involution, especially in the cost link. In 2026, "comprehensively rectify 'involution - style' competition" was included in the 14th Five - Year Plan. The impact of anti - involution on the polyester supply - side needs continuous attention. In terms of specific anti - involution paths, focus on the possibility of updating energy - consumption standards and eliminating old or small - scale upstream devices. The impact of anti - involution in the refining and PTA links on the bottle chip link should be noted, especially the actions of leading state - owned enterprises. In the PTA link, the operating rate may fluctuate more due to increased operating competition [26] 3.1.3 Delivery: Reduced Warehouse - receipt Pressure after Spring Festival, Focus on Spot Liquidity during Peak Season - The warehouse - receipt pressure of the 2601 contract is acceptable, but there is significant inventory - accumulation pressure from the end of the 01 contract delivery to before the Spring Festival. If the joint production cuts by factories end before the Spring Festival, the pre - holiday inventory - accumulation pressure will be relatively large. The long - term contract volume will decrease, and the spot liquidity during the peak season will be tested. The current delivery buyers have digestion pressure on the delivery products and face additional costs [29][31][32] 3.2 Demand - side: Neutral Domestic Demand and Steady Export Growth 3.2.1 The Crowding - out Effect is Over, Beverage Demand Improves Moderately, but Competition Remains Fierce - In 2025, the beverage industry was affected by the crowding - out effect of optional consumption on essential consumption in H1. By the end of the year, this effect was basically over. In 2026, the government subsidy may continue but with a weaker intensity. The expansion of soft - drink production capacity is slowing down, and some leading companies still maintain high investment. The tea - beverage industry has entered a stage of stable growth, and the competition in the bottled - water market continues. The sports - drink category has a leading growth rate, and the sales of bottled water are relatively stable. The ready - to - drink beverage industry is facing a transformation from high - speed growth to stock competition. The ready - to - drink beverage market may see the elimination of marginal SKUs and an increase in the market share of leading enterprises. The ready - to - drink products and bottled beverages are facing cross - competition from ready - made drinks [33][39][45] 3.2.2 Edible Oil Demand is Still Affected by the Food Service Industry, with No Significant Increment - In 2025, the edible oil industry maintained steady growth, but the profits of the food service industry were still weak. The demand for bottle chips from the edible oil industry is expected to remain stable, waiting for the overall recovery of consumer spending to drive the food service industry [47] 3.2.3 The Continuation of the Food Delivery War and New - area Demand Support the Demand for Sheet Materials - The food delivery war in 2025 drove the demand for sheet materials, but the peak has passed. In 2026, food delivery subsidies are expected to continue in a phased and refined way. The high cost - effectiveness of bottle chips promotes the development of new demand in different fields, such as high - end applications in high - frequency circuit boards and lithium - battery separators [55][59] 3.2.4 Export: Expected Decline in Growth Rate, but Overall Steady Growth - In 2025, bottle chip exports were not negatively affected by the trade war, with concentrated stockpiling in H1, a decline in summer due to rising freight rates, and a downward - trending growth rate in H2. In 2026, factors such as high export bases and compressed export profits may lead to a decline in the growth rate, with an expected annual growth rate of about 10% [65][67] 3.3 Bottle Chip Supply - demand Fundamental Summary - In monthly supply - demand terms, the inventory - accumulation pressure during the peak season in 2026 will be reduced. Assuming a 4% growth in domestic demand, a 10% growth in exports during the peak season, and the same situation of domestic - to - export conversion as this year, the monthly production - sales balanced operating rate is about 84% - 85%, 3 - 4 percentage points higher than this year without inventory accumulation. In different operating - rate scenarios, the peak - season inventory - accumulation or de - stocking situation varies. Overall, the peak - season inventory - accumulation pressure will be reduced, and in the off - season, the inventory and operating - rate game of factories still needs to be considered [75] 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In terms of unilateral prices, bottle chips will be weak first and then strong in H1 2026, and there may be a trend change in H2 or Q4 due to weakening cost - end. The key inflection points are the negative feedback of high polyester inventory after the Spring Festival in H1 and the weakening cost due to the commissioning of new PX devices in H2. In 2026, the new capacity of bottle chips is small, and the most significant capacity increment in H1 comes from the Fuhai device commissioned at the end of 2025, which supports the increase in the operating rate. After the inventory risk is released in H1, it is beneficial for long - spreads. In H2, focus on the price weakening and profit redistribution caused by the collapse of cost support after the new PX capacity is commissioned in Q4 [77] - Regarding the spread between staple fiber and bottle chips, although the seasonal demand mismatch driving force still exists in 2026, due to the expected large - scale commissioning of staple fiber devices in H2, the spread market may deviate from the seasonal demand drive. It is recommended to evaluate them separately and trade the spread when the supply - side rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers [78]