2026年LLDPE、PP期货年度行情展望：聚烯烃：投产前低后高，存量博弈加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin production is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half of 2026, with the overall supply growth rate slowing down, but the high - growth demand is also difficult to maintain. PE and PP may continue to "squeeze imports, increase exports" and compress the profits of each process to maintain the low operation of existing plants, achieving a balance between supply and demand in the fundamentals, and the price trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - The supply pattern is still in an over - supply situation. Although the new production capacity in 2026 is less than that in 2025, the effective production capacity center continues to rise, and the inventory production capacity load needs to be carefully released. The demand growth rate is expected to return to the historical average range, and the overall pattern of PE and PP remains over - supplied [57][59]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Polyolefin Trend Review - In 2025, the prices of plastics and polypropylene showed a continuous downward trend. The main reasons were the accelerated expansion of PE and PP production capacity, which led to an excessive supply growth rate that the demand side could not match, and the decline in the prices of raw materials such as crude oil, coal, and light hydrocarbons [6]. - The large - scale production cycle of polyolefins started in 2019 - 2020. The rapid promotion of the propane dehydrogenation (PDH) process promoted the accelerated release of PP production capacity. In 2025, the production capacity of PE increased by 463 tons, and that of PP increased by 441 tons [8][9]. - The cost side was also a factor affecting the price. The global crude oil market shifted from tight balance to surplus, and the coal price fluctuated. The impact of trade frictions on the cost was limited, and the market was more inclined to trade the logic of weakening demand for plastic product exports [12]. 2026 Polyolefin Supply - Demand Outlook Supply Side - New Production Capacity: The release of new ethylene cracking production capacity may continue until the end of 2026. In 2026, the new production capacity of PE and PP is expected to be released in a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The new production capacity of PE is about 550 tons, and the effective production capacity growth rate is 11%. The new production capacity of PP is about 435 tons, and the effective production capacity growth rate is 6.7% [20][21][22]. - Existing Plant Operation: The profit and operation center of polyolefins have shown a downward trend in the past four years. In 2026, the overall supply elasticity of PE is limited, while the supply elasticity of PP is more obvious, especially the PDH process, and the load of PDH plants needs to be continuously tracked [23][28][32]. Import and Export - PE: In 2025, domestic production squeezed imports. In 2026, the actual number of overseas projects that can be put into production may be small, and the import pressure is expected to still come from the Middle East and the United States. The overall import is expected to maintain a squeezed pattern, and the net import may continue to decline by about 1 million tons [33][37][57]. - PP: In 2025, the export center of PP increased significantly, and it achieved a phased net - export pattern. In 2026, the overseas production is expected to be concentrated in South Asia, and the export may continue to increase, with the possibility of turning into a net - export pattern throughout the year [39]. Demand Side - Product Exports: In 2025, from January to October, the export amount of plastic products in China decreased slightly year - on - year. The exports to the United States decreased significantly, while the exports to non - US markets mostly increased positively. In 2026, the traditional demand momentum is insufficient, but the emerging economies will support the export of plastic products to maintain resilience [43][45][46]. - Domestic Demand: In 2025, the apparent demand growth rate of polyolefins was high, but there were many influencing factors. In 2026, the terminal demand of polyolefins may continue to differentiate, and the high - growth rate of demand is difficult to maintain, with the demand growth rate expected to drop to the range of 3 - 5.5% [47][54][57]. Summary and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the production capacity release of PE and PP is in a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The domestic production growth rate is still high, and the overall supply growth rate of PE is about 5.4%. The demand growth rate is expected to drop to 3 - 5.5%, and the overall pattern is still over - supplied. The supply growth rate of PP is about 3.8%, and the demand side may match the supply growth [57][58][59]. - PE and PP may continue to "squeeze imports, increase exports" and compress process profits to maintain low operation of existing plants to achieve supply - demand balance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to the logistics changes of imports and exports and the supply elasticity of marginal plants such as PDH [59][60].