2026年PVC期货年度行情展望：PVC上半年弱，下半年或有减产驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the PVC market will face pressure in the first half of the year and may see production cuts in the second half. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, but the supply - side production cuts during the peak maintenance season next year can be expected due to the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and the historically low level of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [2][50]. - In the long - term trend, PVC valuation is under pressure, but the absolute valuation is at a historical low. Attention should be paid to the seasonal valuation repair market driven by production cuts. Before the production cuts start, the month - spread arbitrage should be treated as a reverse spread. The key time nodes are around the Spring Festival, the start of spring maintenance in March, and the peak - season maintenance from June to August [3][51][53]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 PVC Trend Review - Period from January to March: The PVC market was dominated by the weak reality of "strong supply and weak demand". Supply increased due to high production enthusiasm of northwest chlor - alkali integrated enterprises, while demand was weak because of the sluggish real - estate market. Both spot and futures prices declined [7]. - Period from April to mid - May: Driven by macro events and market sentiment, the PVC futures market fluctuated wildly. After a short - term rise due to Sino - US reconciliation, the market returned to a weak fundamental - driven state [8]. - Period from June to August: After a sharp decline, the market entered a low - level oscillation stage. The rebound was driven by low - valuation support, macro policies, and seasonal factors, but the supply - demand contradiction remained prominent. The market later returned to a downward trend [9]. - Period from September to present: The "golden September and silver October" peak - season expectations failed. Under the pressure of high production, high inventory, and high warehouse receipts, the PVC price continued to fall, hitting a new low for the year. Subsequently, it entered a low - level consolidation stage [10]. 3.2 2026 PVC Supply Pressure High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, Production Cut Driven to Be the Annual Main Line - No New PVC Capacity in 2026, Reducing Supply Pressure: In 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 22.3203 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%. The new capacity in 2025 was expected to be 2.2 million tons, mainly from ethylene - based processes. In 2026, there will be no new PVC capacity except for the 300,000 - ton capacity of Zhejiang Jiahua reaching mass production, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity expansion [13][17]. - PVC Profit in Loss, but Difficult to Cut Production in Winter: Due to overcapacity, intensified market competition, and weak downstream demand, the PVC industry profit has been continuously compressed since October 2025. However, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali device maintenance, and the "alkali - for - chlorine" model in 2025 also increased the difficulty of PVC production cuts. By the end of 2025, the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit reached a new low in recent years [20][22]. - Social Inventory Higher Year - on - Year, High Warehouse Receipts Pressuring Near - Month Contracts: The current absolute amount of PVC social inventory is at the highest level in recent years. Since 2022, affected by the real - estate market, the downstream demand has been weak, and the inventory has been mainly accumulated in the middle - stream. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% month - on - month to 1.0589 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.77%. As of December 5, 2025, the PVC warehouse receipts were 115,756 lots, totaling 578,780 tons [24][25][27]. 3.3 2026 PVC Demand Difficult to Recover, Export Growth Rate May Slow Down - Macro: Policy "Bottom - Support" and Structural Transformation, Limited Space for Domestic Demand Expansion: In 2026, China's macro - economic policy is to "bottom - support" rather than "strongly stimulate". Fiscal policy focuses on "resolving the stock" rather than "creating the increment". The PVC domestic demand will operate in a relatively low - level range [31]. - Real - Estate Downturn Drag Reduced Marginally, Entering the "L - shaped" Bottom Stabilization Period: In 2026, the impact of the real - estate market on PVC demand will change from "accelerated downward drag" to "bottom - range drag". The decline in real - estate sales and investment will narrow, and the PVC downstream product enterprises are adjusting their product structures. However, the overall real - estate investment scale is still shrinking, and the PVC domestic demand will maintain a low - level oscillation [32][33]. - 2025 PVC Domestic Demand Still Under Pressure: In 2025, the start - up of PVC downstream products was divided. The start - up of hard products such as pipes and profiles was lower year - on - year, while the start - up of soft products such as films was higher year - on - year. In 2026, the domestic policy will support the demand for PVC soft products [41][45]. - 2026 Export to Be the Key Variable for Demand Growth, but Growth Rate May Slow Down: In 2026, PVC export is expected to maintain strong resilience. Global industrial chain reconstruction and emerging - market capital expenditure will create new demand, and China's PVC supply chain has cost and stability advantages. However, the year - on - year growth rate may slow down due to the high base. In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons [47][48].