银河期货白糖日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expectation of a slightly bullish and oscillating trend. Domestic sugar prices are trending downward and are likely to remain weak in the short term, but there is some support at the current price level [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: On December 18, 2025, SR09 closed at 5,120, down 34 (-0.66%); SR01 closed at 5,192, down 23 (-0.44%); SR05 closed at 5,102, down 37 (-0.72%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [3]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed a general downward trend. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5390, down 20; in Kunming, it was 5220, down 25 [3]. - Basis: The basis in different regions varied, with Liuzhou at 198, Kunming at 28, etc. [3]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The spread between SR05 - SR01 was - 90, down 14; SR09 - SR05 was 18, up 3; SR09 - SR01 was - 72, down 11 [3]. - Import Profit: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand and their spreads with domestic prices were provided. For example, the quota - free price of Brazilian sugar was 5127, with a spread of 263 compared to Liuzhou [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China imported 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. As of December 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased [5]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar - making season is approaching the end, the supply pressure is easing, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing and sales pressure is rising, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes, high production costs, and the current price approaching the out - of - quota cost line provide some support to the price [9]. - Trading Strategies: - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices are likely to remain weak, but the downward space is limited [10]. - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract [11]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories, monthly production, spot prices, basis, and spreads in different regions and contracts of sugar, which can be used for further analysis of the sugar market [12][16][17][21][26][27].