银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251218

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions on dips [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3114 (down 8 from the previous close), JD05 at 3534 (down 26), JD09 at 3996 (down 56). The 01 - 05 spread was - 420 (up 18), 05 - 09 was - 462 (up 30), 09 - 01 was 882 (down 48). The ratios of 01, 05, 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - Spot Market: The main producing area average price was 3.00 yuan/jin (unchanged), and the main sales area average price was 3.22 yuan/jin (unchanged). The average price of culled chickens was 3.87 yuan/jin (down 0.02 yuan/jin) [2] - Profit Calculation: The profit per chicken was 0.15 yuan (down 0.04 yuan from the previous day). The average price of culled chickens was 3.87 yuan/jin (down 0.02 yuan), the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan (up 0.04 yuan), and the prices of feed such as corn, soybeans, and egg - laying chicken compound feed also had some changes [2] 2. Fundamental Information - Price Trends: The average price of the main producing areas remained unchanged, and the average price of the main sales areas increased by 0.02 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, and the egg prices in various regions were mostly stable with some local fluctuations [4] - Egg - laying Hen Inventory: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory in December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 is approximately 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5] - Chicken Culling and Sales: In the week of December 5, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.82 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 488 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7115 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [5][6] - Profit and Inventory: As of November 21, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of December 5, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.04 days and 0.07 days respectively compared to the previous week [6] 3. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions on dips [7] 4. Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. One can consider building long positions on dips for far - month contracts [8] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]