2026年石脑油行情展望：产业重组与升级，石脑油供需拐点临近

Report Title - "Industrial Reorganization and Upgrading: The Inflection Point of Naphtha Supply and Demand is Approaching - Outlook for the Naphtha Market in 2026" [1] Report Core View - In 2026, against the backdrop of increased uncertainty on the supply side and negative feedback shocks on the demand side, the Asian naphtha market will gradually shift from a significant shortage to a tight - balance pattern. The structural contradictions will evolve into a stock game. In the second half of the year, with the acceleration of the lightening process of Asian ethylene cracking and the impact of the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry, Asian naphtha is expected to turn into a structural surplus [2] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Annual Review of Naphtha - Ethylene Trends 1.1 2025 Annual Review of Naphtha Market - The 2025 naphtha market was mainly characterized by a structural shortage, with geopolitical factors and downstream losses as secondary factors. The naphtha cracking spread remained high throughout the year, but there were still opportunities to lock in profits for downstream cracking units under negative feedback. The market was divided into four stages: the first - quarter structural and seasonal strength stage, the Sino - US trade conflict stage, the East - West naphtha stock market game stage, and the stage of deepening sanctions on Russia and deepening cracking losses in Asia [5] 1.2 2025 Annual Review of Ethylene Market - In 2025, the Asian ethylene market was generally lackluster, with an expectation of oversupply. China's large - scale ethylene capacity release had a huge impact on the prices of ethylene and its derivatives in Asia. Although most ethylene was consumed by downstream supporting devices, regional and internal contradictions were emerging [11][13] 2. 2026 Outlook for Naphtha and Ethylene Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Naphtha Supply Changes 2.1.1 Global Refining Capacity Changes - In 2025, global refining capacity investment fell short of expectations, with a net decrease in capacity. In 2026, the global refining capacity may show a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.2% by the end of the year. Naphtha supply is expected to follow a similar trend, with a growth rate lower than 1.2% [17][19][23] 2.1.2 Domestic Naphtha Yield Calculation - Since this year, China's "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" strategy has led to a decrease in the gasoline and diesel yield of major refineries from an average of 53% in 2024 to about 47% in 2025, which has been mostly converted into naphtha yield. China's naphtha yield has increased from less than 24% to over 25% [25][27] 2.1.3 Global Export Supply and Arbitrage of Naphtha - In 2026, the East - West naphtha price spread is at a historically high level, and a large amount of Western logistics has flowed into Asia. Western naphtha is more driven by gasoline blending demand. In the first half of 2026, the East - West arbitrage logistics will remain at a high level [28][30] 2.1.4 Changes in Export Centers of Various Countries and Reasons - In 2025, the increase in OPEC's crude oil production led to an increase in the refinery operation rate in the Middle East, and the monthly average export of naphtha increased by nearly 300,000 tons. In 2026, the Middle East's export center is expected to remain at 4.2 - 4.3 million tons per month [32][34][37] 2.2 Global Naphtha Demand Changes 2.2.1 Global Gasoline Market Changes - In 2025, the global gasoline market first declined and then rose. In 2026, the global refining capacity is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, and the gasoline market in the first half of the year is still worth looking forward to, while the supply pressure may return in the second half [38][41][43] 2.2.2 Global Ethylene Cracking Unit Commissioning and Elimination - 2025 was a year of large - scale commissioning of global ethylene cracking units, mainly in China. In 2026, the global ethylene capacity growth rate will gradually slow down, and the demand for external naphtha from Asian ethylene cracking will have limited growth [45][47][52] 2.2.3 Asian Ethylene Cracking Unit Maintenance Process - In 2025, Asian ethylene cracking units had few maintenance operations. In 2026, due to the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry, South Korean ethylene cracking units may undergo maintenance in the first half of the year, and some capacities may be shut down permanently [53] 2.2.4 Changes in Ethylene Cracking Unit Processes - Global ethylene cracking units are undergoing profound changes, and the raw material lightening process continues to advance, which will increase the demand for light raw materials but damage the demand for Asian naphtha. In 2026, the demand for naphtha in the stock market is expected to gradually shrink [54][55][57] 2.2.5 Reorganization of the Northeast Asian Ethylene Cracking Industry - South Korea's ethylene cracking industry is struggling. The South Korean government plans to eliminate 2.7 - 3.8 million tons of ethylene production capacity in 2026. The elimination of production capacity will not only reduce ethylene exports but also affect domestic downstream derivatives [59][61][62] 2.3 Summary of Contradictions in Ethylene Downstream Derivatives 2.3.1 Polyethylene Summary - In 2025, China's plastic production capacity increased significantly. In 2026, the plastic production capacity will continue to increase, and the existing profits may be difficult to maintain. The operating rate of plastic is an important factor in the ethylene supply - demand balance [64][66] 2.3.2 Ethylene Glycol Summary - The ethylene glycol market will weaken in 2026 due to new capacity release and changes in the operating rate of existing units. The price is seeking cost - support margins [67][69] 2.3.3 Styrene Summary - In 2025, the global styrene price fell sharply. In 2026, the styrene industry chain investment is mainly concentrated in the upstream pure benzene segment. The supply - demand contradiction of styrene is more concentrated in maintenance [72][74] 2.3.4 PVC and Other Summary - PVC is the weakest link in the ethylene derivatives industry chain. In 2026, the operating rate of PVC ethylene method may decline [76] 3. Naphtha - Ethylene Balance Sheet 3.1 Domestic and Asian Ethylene Balance Sheet - In 2026, the commissioning of ethylene downstream derivatives in the first half of the year is limited. The supply side of ethylene will be narrowed, and the demand side will have different changes in different products. If there is no additional production reduction from upstream factories, the domestic ethylene stock may tend to be oversupplied [79][81][82] 3.2 Asian Naphtha Balance Sheet - In the first half of 2026, the Asian naphtha supply - demand pattern is seasonally blurred, showing a tight - balance pattern with a small - scale de - stocking trend. The demand side will be the main contradiction, and the balance sheet may change due to downstream negative feedback [85][86][87]