2026年纸浆期货行情展望：底部区域确认，反弹亦有压力

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, but the upside space is limited. Investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [2][3][97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Pulp Trend Review - Periodic Price and Volatility Trends: From the beginning of the year to February 5, the SP price oscillated upwards with a 4.64% increase due to factors like rising foreign offers and increased import costs. From February 5 to May 6, it dropped by 19.34% because of oversupply and tariff conflicts. From May 6 to October 10, it was in a sideways oscillation with a slight decline of 0.82%. From October 10 to December 5, it oscillated strongly with a 9.61% increase [6][7][8]. - Volatility Performance: The annual volatility of pulp futures in 2025 was lower than the previous year. There were three obvious increases in volatility, which were affected by factors such as US tariff policies, "anti - involution" policies, and concerns about insufficient delivery products [10][11]. 3.2 2026 Pulp Operation Logic - Supply Side: - Overseas Supply: In 2026, overseas pulp production capacity is expected to increase. The supply of coniferous pulp is expected to remain stable, while the key variable for broad - leaf pulp lies in the OKI project. The appreciation of the euro in 2025 had a negative impact on the demand for pulp in Europe. The proportion of pulp shipped to China may decrease in 2026, but the overall overseas supply pressure will not ease [14][19][20]. - Domestic Supply: In 2026, domestic pulp production capacity is expected to increase by about 345 tons, with the supply pressure concentrated in the fourth quarter. The price of domestic wood chips is stabilizing, and the import of recycled pulp is tightening, which is conducive to raising the price of domestic pulp and providing a bottom reference for the market [29][31][32]. - Demand Side: - Demand Structure Changes: The growth in demand for white cardboard and tissue paper is expected to offset the decline in demand for cultural paper, driving a slight increase in the demand for pulp. However, over - capacity and oversupply make it difficult to raise downstream paper prices, limiting the upward space for pulp prices [48][49][67]. - Cost Structure Adjustment: Due to the long - term high price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, paper mills have been optimizing their pulp formulas. As the price difference narrows, some paper mills may increase the use of coniferous pulp [91]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Pulp Price Judgment in 2026: The bottom of the pulp price is basically confirmed, but the upside is limited. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden Three, Silver Four" and "Golden Nine, Silver Ten" can be focused on, but the upward space during these periods may be restricted by factors such as inventory and supply [97][99]. - Investment Outlook: The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, and investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [3][102].