Guohai Securities·2025-12-18 13:32Group 1 - The report identifies four macro clues for 2025: TACO trading, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm, AI commercialization, and China's export resilience [8] - It suggests that in 2026, the domestic GDP growth is expected to shift from external demand to investment driven by central finance, alongside a price recovery leading to a restocking cycle [8] - The report emphasizes that the main industry themes for 2026 will focus on "anti-involution" and "hard technology" sectors, highlighting coal, chemicals, construction materials, and power equipment as key areas for potential profit recovery [8] Group 2 - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 recommends a diversified approach, favoring equities and commodities over interest rate bonds, with an overweight on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] - The report notes that the current market is driven by institutional funds rather than retail investors, indicating a preference for sectors with high profitability and fundamental improvements [8] - It highlights that the active equity funds are heavily concentrated in the TMT sector, with over 40% of holdings, leaving room for "anti-involution" and domestic demand recovery sectors [8] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various asset classes in 2025, noting that precious metals and Asia-Pacific equities led the gains, while bonds showed lackluster performance [10][11] - It indicates that the dollar index weakened by approximately 8.3%, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by about 3.01% [11] - The report also highlights that the VIX index experienced significant fluctuations due to trade policy uncertainties, impacting market sentiment and asset performance [20]