2026年合成橡胶期货年度行情展望：二季度基本面偏强，下半年或有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].