景气改善，拾级而上：2026年煤炭行业投资策略

Core Insights - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" with a maintained rating, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The report highlights an improvement in market conditions, suggesting a gradual recovery in coal prices and overall industry performance [2] Investment Highlights - The coal price is expected to decline initially in 2025 before rebounding, with the coal sector projected to yield positive absolute returns, albeit underperforming the CSI 300 index [5] - Domestic supply is anticipated to decrease in 2026 due to production restrictions, with varying impacts across provinces: Shanxi is expected to reduce washed coal output, Inner Mongolia's production is at its peak, Shaanxi faces capacity exit pressures, and Xinjiang has potential for increased output [5] - Import coal volumes are projected to decline in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% from January to October. A slight recovery is expected in 2026, particularly in thermal coal from Mongolia, while Australian and American imports are anticipated to decrease [5] - Electricity demand is shifting, with significant increases in hydropower and wind energy, leading to a reduction in thermal power generation in 2025. However, a recovery in thermal power demand is expected in 2026 [5] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the supply of coal is likely to decline in 2026, with marginal improvements in thermal power and stabilization in non-electric demand, contributing to an overall improvement in coal market conditions [6] - The average price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 RMB in 2026, while coking coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at the bottom, with demand improvements being a key factor [6] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize leading companies with strong resource endowments, effective cost control, and high long-term contract ratios, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies that are expected to benefit from improving coal prices include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, and Guanghui Energy [6] - Coking coal companies are recommended due to their strong resource scarcity and potential benefits from counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment policies, with a focus on Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [6] Policy Impact - The report discusses the effectiveness of supply-side reforms in stabilizing coal prices, indicating that recent production restrictions have positively influenced market conditions [21][27] - The relationship between coal prices and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is emphasized, with stable coal prices being crucial for stabilizing PPI, which has been under pressure for an extended period [30][42]