2026年转债年度投资策略：高价高估新环境，推荐哑铃配置

Group 1 - The 2026 equity market outlook indicates strong liquidity support, with a focus on performance and thematic trends, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace and CPO [2][7] - The valuation of the equity market has risen to historical highs, with potential concerns about future profit and revenue growth rates compared to valuation percentiles, suggesting further upside may exist [2][39] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sectors with significant ROE improvements, such as steel, media, and military industries, which may present investment opportunities [39] Group 2 - The 2026 convertible bond market is expected to see gradual supply and demand recovery, with valuations likely to remain volatile [3][4] - Supply-side improvements are noted, with new bond issuances increasing year-on-year, although still at historically low levels, and regulatory changes may further influence supply dynamics [3][46] - Demand is shifting towards relative return investors, with public funds increasing their holdings in convertible bonds, indicating a potential easing of the supply-demand imbalance [3][16] Group 3 - The report recommends a "barbell" strategy in the current high-price, high-valuation environment, emphasizing the need to focus on elastic convertible bonds that may offer valuation advantages [5][9] - There is a noted shift in the demand for traditional core convertible bonds, with a focus on large-cap and dividend-paying bonds as potential substitutes in a low-interest-rate environment [5][9] - The valuation advantage of near-term convertible bonds is highlighted, suggesting that they may present opportunities for investors, while caution is advised regarding new bonds due to high valuation differentials [5][9]