集运日报：或对未来运价走势存疑，主力合约冲高回落，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈。-20251218

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Due to the market's long - short game and the weakening of bullish sentiment, there are doubts about the subsequent freight rate trend, and the main contract has risen and then fallen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Freight Rate Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and better than the expected value [2]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3]. c. Main Contract Information - On December 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1699.8, with a decline of 0.68%, a trading volume of 24,200 lots, and an open interest of 32,000 lots, a decrease of 512 lots from the previous day [3]. d. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to take a light - position long on the main contract, and all positions have been advised to take profit. No additional positions are recommended, and no holding of losing positions is advised. Stop - loss should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profit when rising, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].