冶炼厂观望惜售，铅价低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, but some varieties are expected to decline after completion of delivery. The lead price is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the downstream restocking period before the festival is still early. The current operation should mainly focus on selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range being 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 45.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,825 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 40,173 lots, a decrease of 506 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 26,930 lots, a decrease of 2,802 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotation discount of suppliers continued to narrow, quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters supported prices for shipment, with quotations at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory. In Tianjin, the quotations of suppliers varied greatly. Some actively shipped at the end of the year with large discounts, while others had firm quotations due to limited inventory. In Yunnan, suppliers held back from selling and waited and watched, with a small amount of transactions at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. The lead futures fluctuated weakly, smelters continued to hold back from selling and wait and watch, downstream rigid - demand procurement still picked up goods from nearby warehouses, and the overall spot market transactions of scattered orders were still relatively light [2] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 22,000 tons, a change of 1,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of December 17, the LME lead inventory was 265,575 tons, a decrease of 2,875 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Adopt a cautious and bearish strategy. After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, but after completion of delivery, some varieties are expected to decline. The lead price is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the downstream restocking period before the festival is still early. The current operation should mainly focus on selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range being 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4]