矿山干扰消息频传，碳酸锂接近涨停

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent strong performance of lithium carbonate prices is mainly due to mining - end interference news. The suspension of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mine and the public notice of canceling 27 mining rights by the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun, Jiangxi have triggered market concerns about lithium resource supply. The abnormal price increase today mainly reflects emotional fluctuations and has a weak connection with industry fundamentals. The continuous decline of social inventory and the unchanged supply - tight situation also support the price increase to some extent. In the short - term, it is likely to maintain a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of capacity release and capital trends, while being vigilant about the intensified fluctuations caused by marginal changes in supply and demand [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 17, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 101,500 yuan/ton and closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, with a 7.61% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,158,611 lots, and the open interest was 668,589 lots, compared with 666,027 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 11,010 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 15,636 lots, a change of 350 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,600 - 99,500 yuan/ton, a change of 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 93,300 - 95,600 yuan/ton, a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,330 US dollars/ton, a change of 70 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] Strategy - The uncertainty on the supply side is one of the key factors supporting the strong price. There are continuous supply interference news at home and abroad. In general, it is likely to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of capacity release and capital trends, and be vigilant about the intensified fluctuations caused by marginal changes in supply and demand [2] Trading Recommendations - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term. There are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. The influencing factors include continued over - performance of the consumer end, over - expected mining end disturbances, and the impact of macro - sentiment and open interest changes [4]