Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in port inventory has slowed down, while inland inventory has rebounded. Port total inventory continues to decline, with high floating storage pressure due to delayed unloading. Inland inventory is being replenished. On the supply side, coal - based production has stable operation, and southwest gas - based production has seasonal winter maintenance. In terms of MTO, new installations and maintenance affect demand in different regions. Traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2605 - MA2609) [7][16][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between different regions (CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, etc.) [26][30][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Port total inventory is 1,218,818 tons (-15,552 tons), with inventory in different ports showing different trends. Inland factory inventory is 391,140 tons (+38,310 tons). The MTO/P operating rate is 89.95% (-0.88%). The report also analyzes the reasons for inventory changes in ports and inland areas [1][2][33] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between Lubei and Northwest (-280), Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), etc. These price differences have changed to varying degrees [2][37][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [45][54] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the MA2605 - MA2609 spread when it is low - Cross - variety: Go short on the LL2605 - 3*MA2605 cross - variety spread when it is high [4]
港口库存下滑幅度放缓,内地库存回升
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-18 02:36