20251218申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251218

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price rose overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper - Overnight price: Closed higher [2]. - Supply: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits at the break - even point, smelting output decreased month - on - month but still growing [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance production is negative; real estate is weak [2]. - Market outlook: Global copper supply - demand expected to shift to a deficit due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 92,720 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 165 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,743 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 166,600 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 725 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight price: Closed higher [2]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continued to grow [2]. - Demand: Galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance production is negative, real estate is weak [2]. - Market outlook: Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. Attention should also be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 75 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,072 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 21.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 95,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 31,075 tons [2]. Other Metals (Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Tin) - Market data: - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,865 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 130 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,906 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 47.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 0 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 113,800 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,020 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,365 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 189.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,308 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 84 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,735 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 80 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,961 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 47.19 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 268,450 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 15,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 328,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 7,610 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 42,275 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 18.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,815 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 20 tons [2].