供需两端持续承压，价格反弹乏力

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand sides of the polyolefin market are under continuous pressure, and the price rebound lacks momentum. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weakening, leading to large inventory pressure and limited short - term improvement. For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6479 yuan/ton (-64), and the PP main contract is 6254 yuan/ton (-2). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes. [1] - Upstream Supply: PE开工率 is 84.1% (+0.1%), and PP开工率 is 78.3% (+0.7%). [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 358.7 yuan/ton (+127.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 261.3 yuan/ton (+127.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 714.1 yuan/ton (+60.0). [1] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is - 100.0 yuan/ton (+5.1), PP import profit is - 268.1 yuan/ton (+4.9), and PP export profit is - 12.1 US dollars/ton (-0.6). [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film开工率 decline, while PP downstream BOPP film开工率 increases slightly and plastic weaving开工率 remains unchanged. [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply is expected to increase due to low maintenance and new device production. Demand is weakening as downstream开工率 drops. Inventory pressure is large, and cost support is weakening. [2] - PP: Supply is expected to remain high with less maintenance. Demand is limited, and inventory levels are high. Cost support is weakening, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term. - Inter - period: No strategy is provided. - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high. [4]