A股飘红,关注美国11月CPI数据
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-18 02:35
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid policy expectation swings and complex global economic situations, investors should track sentiment-driven market trends and prepare for potential risks on the right side. Particular attention should be paid to the sectors of non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and certain commodities with high certainty [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. After important meetings in December, future policy marginal increments may depend on growth-stabilizing points. The government will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." Multiple ministries have responded, and investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year. China's November economic data shows mixed performance, with industrial production remaining resilient and consumption hitting a low for the year. The A-share market strengthened on December 17 [1] International Monetary Policy and Economy - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, with expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US employment and PMI data are weak, while the eurozone's manufacturing PMI shows a mixed picture, and the UK's inflation has unexpectedly declined, increasing the expectation of a fourth interest rate cut this year. The market is currently driven by sentiment, but risks of macro and fundamental resonance should be watched out for [2] Commodity Market - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The long-term supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals sector remain unresolved. In the energy sector, there are additional production cuts and geopolitical factors affecting the oil price. In the chemical industry, there is "anti-involution" potential in certain varieties. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan from the US and weather expectations. For precious metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short-term risks for silver have increased [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Key News - The market strengthened throughout the day on December 17, with the ChiNext Index surging over 3%. Many stocks rose, and trading volume reached 1.83 trillion. The Fed's official said there is room for interest rate cuts but no need to rush. The UK's November CPI was lower than expected. The WTI crude futures rose due to Trump's order to block Venezuelan oil tankers. Many commodity futures closed with significant gains [6]