通胀爆冷但可信度受限，贵?属维持偏强运

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pricing environment for precious metals remains favorable. The significant slowdown in core inflation in the US in November, continued dovish signals from the Fed, and escalating geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Gold is in a high - level consolidation, and silver has set new records. The deviation between the macro and risk assets drives the demand for hedging and allocation, which supports precious metals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - US November CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. Core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the 3% two months ago, indicating further easing of inflation pressure [3]. - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with the deposit rate at 2%. The market started to cut rate - cut bets and priced in the possibility of a rate hike in 2026, leading to a slight strengthening of the euro [3]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since February 2023, which was in line with expectations [3]. Price Logic - Gold: Although inflation data quality is limited, the downward trend of real interest rates remains intact. The decline of US November core CPI to 2.6% strengthens the market's pricing of Fed's continued easing before 2026. Despite the limited credibility of inflation data, the forward - looking pricing of the rate - cut path in the interest rate market has not reversed. Gold's demand as an asset allocation and risk - hedging tool remains stable due to geopolitical tensions and year - end liquidity tightening [4]. - Silver: In the context of stable gold prices, silver shows relative elasticity. In the short - term, it reflects changes in capital structure and volatility rather than a shift in macro - logic. In the medium - term, real interest rate decline and overall precious metal allocation demand support silver, but at high price levels, the risk of increased volatility and partial retracement rises [4]. Outlook - In the short - term, London gold is expected to trade in the range of [4150, 4500] dollars per ounce, and London silver in the range of [60, 67] dollars per ounce [7]. Index Performance - Commodity Index: The commodity index was 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index was 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial products index was 2207.25, up 0.79%; the PPI commodity index was 1367.53, up 0.65% [49]. - Precious Metals Index: On December 18, 2025, it was 3717.12, up 0.07% for the day, 2.01% in the past 5 days, 11.68% in the past month, and 68.01% year - to - date [50].