农业策略：东北粮采购需求回落，玉米价格支撑减退

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry but gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "Oscillating Weakly", "Oscillating", and "Oscillating Upwards" [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various agricultural products, considering factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and policy impacts, and provides short - to long - term outlooks on price trends for each product [1][6][7] Summary by Product 1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Yesterday, the market showed a divergent trend, with palm oil relatively resistant to decline. - Logic: Influenced by factors such as pre - holiday position adjustment, US soybean price decline, US dollar strengthening, and South American soybean harvest expectations, the market is facing multiple factors' games. - Outlook: Soybean oil is oscillating weakly, palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating weakly [6] 2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The supply outlook for South American soybeans is optimistic, and both domestic and international markets are continuing to oscillate weakly. - Logic: South American soybean sowing is nearly complete, and production prospects are good. In the US, soybean crushing has decreased month - on - month. In China, state - reserve soybean auctions continue, and inventory reduction is slow. - Outlook: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The purchasing demand for Northeast corn has declined, and price support has weakened. - Logic: Market rumors of reserve auctions and high - level price points have led to a change in market sentiment. In the Northeast, the willingness to sell has increased, and in North China, demand for Northeast corn has decreased. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival, with a low probability of breaking previous lows [1][9] 4. Pigs - Viewpoint: Demand has boosted spot prices in the short term, but the futures market remains under pressure. - Logic: Supply pressure still exists in the short and medium term, but sow production capacity is expected to decrease in the long term, and demand is improving due to the approaching winter solstice. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly. Near - term contracts may be in a weak range, while far - term contracts are supported by production capacity reduction expectations [9] 5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The resistance at the pressure level is strong, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. - Logic: The market is in an oscillating pattern, with overseas supply increasing seasonally and demand being weak. - Outlook: Expected to continue oscillating, with no clear trend [13] 6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the adjustment strength and time. - Logic: The BR futures price has fallen after rising, but it may be the strongest among the three types of rubber. The raw material butadiene price has shown support. - Outlook: The futures market is temporarily considered to be oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the high - level resistance in late October [15] 7. Cotton - Viewpoint: Cotton prices will continue to be strong in the short term. - Logic: Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing seasonally, but policy expectations and low warehouse receipts have attracted capital inflows. - Outlook: In the short term, there is a risk of correction; in the long term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] 8. Sugar - Viewpoint: Under the expectation of loose supply, sugar prices continue to fall. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the supply of new sugar is increasing. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly in the long term [16] 9. Pulp - Viewpoint: Futures prices are fluctuating, and spot prices are continuously falling. - Logic: There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors being more likely to be realized in the short term, and negative factors mainly related to long - term price transmission. - Outlook: Oscillating upwards [17] 10. Offset Paper - Viewpoint: Lack of driving force, with narrow - range fluctuations. - Logic: The market lacks clear upward or downward drivers, with stable prices in the short term and expected supply - demand adjustments in the medium term. - Outlook: Prices will be weakly stable [20] 11. Logs - Viewpoint: Spot prices are stabilizing, and futures prices are strengthening. - Logic: Supply pressure is gradually easing, and the futures market has certain support and game points. - Outlook: The market pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage or long - position opportunities in far - term contracts [21] Commodity Index Data - Comprehensive Index: The special index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on December 18, 2025, shows that the Commodity Index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the Industrial Product Index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. - Sector Index: The Agricultural Product Index on December 18, 2025, is 915.35, with a daily decline of 0.35%, a 5 - day decline of 1.34%, a 1 - month decline of 0.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.12%. The PPI Commodity Index is 1367.53, up 0.65% [178][179]