中信期货晨报：国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，贵金属涨幅居前-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed's interest - rate meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, liquidity - driven soft - landing trades are heating up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate Hassert has a rising nomination probability, which could lead to a smooth phase for liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risk trades [5]. - Domestic macro: The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference analyzed and studied the 2026 economic work. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive, and it is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, continuing the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals sector and high - financial - attribute varieties in the non - ferrous metals sector such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous varieties (tin, lithium carbonate). Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to industrial - attribute commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. The equity index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings and is defensive [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Attention should be paid to the overcrowding of small - cap funds [6]. - Stock index options: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include the possibility of the option market's liquidity falling short of expectations [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors to watch are policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff - related factors [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: With the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and tight silver spot supply, they are expected to oscillate upward in the short term, with silver having greater elasticity. Attention should be paid to the US economic performance, Fed monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: After the peak season in the third quarter, the market is facing loading pressure and lacks upward momentum, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. The focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [6]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is still weak, and attention should be paid to cost support, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [6]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Factors to watch include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [6]. - Coke: Supported by cost, the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [6]. - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the spot price continues to rise, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [6]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost support exists, but there is a lack of upward momentum, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key points are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Silicomanganese: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and the market is under pressure, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - Glass: Supply cuts have been implemented, and the spot price has risen, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. The focus is on spot sales [6]. - Soda ash: Downstream low - price replenishment has led to a slight increase in the spot price, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [6]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have led to a short - term decline in copper prices, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, unexpected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends [6]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Key factors are macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - Zinc: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery [6]. - Lead: Secondary lead smelters are about to resume production, and the price is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [6]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply release [6]. - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing, and the price has slightly rebounded, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - Tin: Supply constraints still exist, and the price is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and expected demand improvement [6]. - Industrial silicon: Sentiment fluctuates, but supply is abundant, and the price is oscillating in the short term. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing, and the price has slightly strengthened, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [8]. - LPG: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments, with a short - term outlook of oscillation [8]. - Asphalt: The futures price may test the 3200 pressure level again, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is weakly oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the crude oil market and oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. The focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - Methanol: There is some support at the 2100 level, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are macro - energy and overseas developments [8]. - Urea: High inventory and cost support co - exist, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference [8]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimistic sentiment is hard to reverse, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions [8]. - PX: The market lacks clear guidance, and the cost - emotion game maintains oscillation, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: New Fengming has started new production and stopped old production, and short - term new supply is limited, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - Short - fiber: Downstream factories are digesting previous inventory, and processing fees are expected to be compressed, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [8]. - Bottle chips: Cost is stagnant, and supply - demand drivers are limited, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: Downstream transactions have improved limitedly, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - conditions [8]. - PP: Fundamental support is limited, and the market weakens, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - conditions [8]. - Plastic: Short - term maintenance has decreased, and the market is in a weak pattern, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - conditions [8]. - Styrene: Concerns about over - inventory still exist, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: Market sentiment has cooled, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic soda: With low valuation and weak expectations, the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [8]. 3.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has improved, and waiting for positive factors to ferment, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [8]. - Protein meal: Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Key factors are weather, domestic demand, macro - conditions, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - Corn/starch: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are demand, macro - conditions, and weather [8]. - Live pigs: Producers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the price oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - Natural rubber: The market is oscillating and adjusting, and the bearish sentiment remains, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - Synthetic rubber: The market has rebounded from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factor is significant crude oil price fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are demand and inventory [8]. - Sugar: The strategy is to sell at high prices, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are imports and Brazilian production [8]. - Pulp: The futures price has risen with increased trading volume, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [8]. - Offset paper: It follows the pulp market and strengthens, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up [8]. - Logs: The market is oscillating at the bottom, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [8].