格林大华期货早盘提示-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures [1][2][3]. - In 2026, the A - share market's valuation is expected to rise further due to factors such as incremental macro - policies, a decline in the risk - free interest rate, the continuous transfer of household savings to the stock market, and the continuous net inflow of long - term funds [3]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to China's capital market. The risk of a significant rise in China's stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline [3]. - The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated, with growth - style indices adjusting. The satellite and aerospace sectors led the gains. The trading volume in the two markets was 1.65 trillion yuan, showing a volume contraction during the adjustment. The CSI 300 index closed at 4552 points, down 27 points or - 0.59%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2998 points, up 6 points or 0.23%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7100 points, down 36 points or - 0.52%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7272 points, down 16 points or - 0.22% [1]. - Among industry and thematic ETFs, satellite ETFs, general aviation ETF funds, CSI bank ETFs, coal ETFs, and aerospace ETFs led the gains, while battery ETFs, Gem new energy ETFs (Guotai), and 5G 50 ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, forestry, pharmaceutical commerce, aerospace equipment, coal mining, and small and medium - sized bank indices led the gains, while component, consumer electronics, battery, glass fiber, and power grid equipment indices led the losses [1]. - The margin funds in the stock index futures of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 6.6 billion, 3.2 billion, 3.0 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information - A relevant official from the Central Financial Office stated that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, industrial transformation and upgrading will accelerate, and the concentration of scientific and technological and industrial innovation achievements will enter a stage of concentrated explosion. Through the linkage of investment and consumption and the coordination between the government and the market, there are fully conditions to promote the continuous growth of domestic demand next year [1]. - BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Winnie Wu said that her view of the Chinese market has changed significantly. China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures, are regaining global investors' confidence in China's long - term growth [1][2]. - The World Platinum Investment Council's (WPIC) research director Edward Sterck said that the global platinum market will face a third consecutive year of supply shortage in 2025, with an expected shortage of 850,000 ounces. In general, the platinum market supply is expected to remain in the range of 7.2 to 7.3 million ounces in the next few years, with limited growth space [1]. - Trump clearly stated that the next Federal Reserve Chairman must be someone who believes in "substantial interest rate cuts", and "mortgage loan interest rates will further decline". He believes that the next Federal Reserve Chairman should consult with him on interest rate setting [1]. - The focus of the Bank of Japan has shifted to the subsequent policy path. It needs to carefully balance multiple goals: retaining policy space by suggesting that interest rates are still below the neutral level (1% - 2.5%), avoiding overly hawkish communication that may push up government bond yields or overly dovish communication that may lead to excessive depreciation of the yen, and coordinating with the government that tends to stimulate the economy [1]. - Humanoid robots are accelerating their entry into factories. Guotai Haitong Securities pointed out that handling and quality inspection are the preferred commercialization paths, and the core bottleneck lies in the return on investment. To achieve a two - year payback period, the robot's selling price needs to be reduced to the level of 100,000 yuan. The market space for China's industrial scenarios is expected to exceed 48 billion yuan in 2035 [2]. - Amazon announced the reorganization of its artificial intelligence - related teams and the establishment of a new business unit, aiming to create a cutting - edge, multi - purpose artificial intelligence tool similar to ChatGPT [2]. - BofA said that with its low data cost and large and young Internet population, India has become the world's most active and highest - penetration AI consumer market. Telecom giants are accelerating penetration through free AI subscriptions, making India a key test field for technology companies to test "proxy AI", but local start - ups face greater competitive pressure [2]. - The "Trump Account" plan proposes to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks to accumulate wealth. Based on the S&P index's average annual growth rate of 10.5%, this fund may increase to about $5800 when the child is 18 years old and may reach about $600,000 at retirement; if the family makes additional annual investments, the account value may exceed $300,000 at 18 [2]. - Hedge fund giant Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business. Geopolitical turmoil, extreme weather, and Trump's trade policies have caused fluctuations in assets such as energy, metals, coffee, and oil, driving multi - strategy funds to invest billions of dollars in the commodity market [2]. - PJM, which operates the power grid covering 13 states and serving nearly one - fifth of the US population, said that its latest auction to ensure power supply will cost consumers $16.4 billion. The results announced this week show that the average daily cost of these power supplies has risen from $329.17 per megawatt to $333.44 [2]. - Blockchain data shows that early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years. The past 30 days have been one of the most intense selling periods for long - term holders in more than five years. Previously, this selling was mostly absorbed by newly launched ETF funds and institutional demand, but now this demand has subsided [2]. - Oracle's stock price has fallen to its lowest point since mid - June (below the 200 - day moving average), down 45% from its peak, the largest decline since August 2011, and its CDS has expanded to the level of the global financial crisis. It has become a representative of negative sentiment towards AI [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated, with growth - style indices adjusting. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures. The National Council for Social Security Fund held a Party group meeting to scientifically and effectively carry out asset allocation and steadily invest in various types of assets, actively serving national development needs and better supporting the in - depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [1][2][3]. - Zhongtai Securities said that the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan in 2025. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major sources of incremental funds. The incremental funds from institutions in the stock market in 2026 will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products will at least double compared with this year [2]. - More and more international funds are turning their attention to AI tracks outside the United States. China's technology sector, with its significant valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and irreplaceable large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is gradually becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. - UBS Securities' China equity strategy analyst pointed out that in 2026, factors such as incremental macro - policies, a decline in the risk - free interest rate, the continuous transfer of household savings to the stock market, and the continuous net inflow of long - term funds will jointly promote the further increase of the A - share market's valuation [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. The National Council for Social Security Fund held a Party group meeting to scientifically and effectively carry out asset allocation. Global funds are increasing their investment in China's stock market again. The AI strength, valuation attractiveness, and resilience of China have become a consensus. Foreign capital has shifted from passive inflows to expecting the return of active funds. China's technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [1][3]. - JPMorgan Chase believes that the risk of a significant rise in China's stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline, and it is optimistic about multiple positive factors in the Chinese market, including the acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market [3]. - Google's AI infrastructure director said that the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the continuously rising demand for AI services [3]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to China's capital market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and bought $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet. The main funds showed obvious actions to support the market at the 3800 - point line of the Shanghai Composite Index to prevent the technical indicators from deteriorating. Some institutions have begun to make early spring layouts. The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities [1][3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. The main funds showed obvious actions to support the market at the 3800 - point line of the Shanghai Composite Index. Some institutions have begun to make early spring layouts. The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities [1][3]. - Stock index options trading: The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, so it is advisable not to participate in stock index call options for the time being [3].