塑料PP每日早盘观察-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity utilization, inventory levels, macro - economic indicators, and international events. The trading strategies vary daily based on these factors, with suggestions of holding, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines for both L and PP contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - L Plastic: The price of LLDPE market mostly shows fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. The trading volume is often limited due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing attitudes. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, the L主力 2605 contract closed at 6434 points, down 42 points or 0.65%. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE market was between 6390 - 6850 yuan/ton [1] - PP Polypropylene: The PP market is also in a state of adjustment. Some regions have structural supply shortages, but the overall trading atmosphere is weak. On 12 - 25 - 19, the PP主力 2605 contract closed at 6248 points, down 31 points or 0.49% [1] Important Information - Domestic Economy: In 2025, the total social electricity consumption in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time, and the total installed power generation capacity exceeds 380 million kilowatts. The new energy industry has developed rapidly, with new installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching about 370 million kilowatts [2] - Industry Development: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Chinese synthetic resin industry has achieved high - quality development, with the largest production capacity in the world. The ethylene self - sufficiency rate has increased from 73% to 90%. The industry has diversified raw material routes, optimized product structures, and achieved independent breakthroughs in technology and equipment [9] Logical Analysis - Production and Consumption: In October, the apparent consumption of PE and PP increased, with a combined total of 735.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The production capacity utilization rate of PE and PP also showed different trends, with some periods of increase and some of decrease [16] - Macroeconomic Indicators: Macroeconomic indicators such as the M1 and M2 growth rates, the China Bond New Composite Index, and the logistics industry prosperity index have an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in November, the domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, with the scissors difference at - 3.1% [10] Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, it was suggested to stay on the sidelines for the L主力 2605 contract and the PP主力 2605 contract, and pay attention to the support at 6200 points for the PP contract [3] - Arbitrage Trading: Most of the time, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines, but there are also suggestions to try long or short positions in certain situations [3] - Options Trading: Generally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]