东南亚消费行业11月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，多数消费跑输指数

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Southeast Asia consumer sector, but it indicates that most consumer sectors are underperforming the index, suggesting a cautious outlook for investments in this area [1]. Core Insights - Inflation in Southeast Asia is described as moderate and uneven, with varying impacts across different countries. Indonesia's CPI increased by 2.72%, Thailand's decreased by 0.49%, Vietnam's rose by 3.25%, and the Philippines saw a 1.5% increase, indicating a controlled inflation environment conducive to consumer recovery [3][12][22][37]. - Consumer confidence is recovering in Indonesia, with the consumer confidence index rising to 124.0, reflecting optimism about economic prospects. In Thailand, the consumer confidence index increased to 50.9, driven by government stimulus and improved trade conditions [17][25]. - Retail sales in Indonesia and Vietnam show robust growth, with Indonesia's food and beverage retail index growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while Vietnam's retail sales increased by 7.1% [4][39]. Economic Data Summary - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 5.04%, supported by strong consumer spending and investment, although it showed a slight slowdown compared to Q2 2025 [12]. - Thailand's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 1.2%, driven by consumer spending and tourism, but overall growth remains moderate [20]. - Singapore's GDP grew by 4.2% in Q3 2025, primarily due to manufacturing and service sector recovery, indicating a stable economic environment [28]. - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 8.23% in Q3 2025, reflecting strong performance in industrial and service sectors, although challenges remain from external demand fluctuations [35]. Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector in Southeast Asia shows signs of resilience, with Indonesia's consumer confidence and retail sales indicating strong demand. However, the overall performance of consumer stocks has lagged behind the market index in several countries [4][11]. - In Thailand, consumer spending remains cautious, with inflation pressures being low, which may limit growth in consumer sectors [22]. - Malaysia's consumer sector is recovering, with GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 2025, supported by domestic demand and investment [42].