中泰期货晨会纪要-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different sectors and varieties having different investment outlooks and risks. For example, in the stock index futures, it is necessary to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair; in the black sector, steel and ore are expected to be short - term volatile and medium - long - term bearish; in the energy sector, the rise of crude oil driven by geopolitics is limited [15][17][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, expanding the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to more than 6,600 tariff items. China has re - implemented the export license management for steel products after 16 years and approved some rare earth export general license applications. A large gold mine was discovered in Laizhou, Shandong, with a cumulative proven gold resource reserve of over 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the national total [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. Market institutions expect a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve - requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point interest - rate cut in 2026. The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital market's "14th Five - Year Plan" [10]. - In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will strengthen capacity control. The next - nominee for the Fed chair may support "substantial" interest - rate cuts. Trump will sign a nearly trillion - dollar annual defense policy bill. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates are lower than expected, but the reliability of the inflation report is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased [11]. - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China decreased its holdings. The main contracts of palladium and platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had significant movements, and trading restrictions were imposed [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair. If it is realized, the index may strengthen. A - share large and small indexes are differentiated. US economic data shows mixed performance, and domestic November macro - economic data shows a decline in most indicators. The stock market and the bond market strengthened simultaneously on Wednesday, and the market was differentiated on Thursday [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is that medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and may fluctuate strongly. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the central bank restarts the 14 - day reverse repurchase. The macro - policy expression in the central economic work conference is marginally relaxed, but it is not enough to drive interest - rate cut transactions in the short term. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and bond - buying scale at the end of the month [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the implementation of important meeting spirits is in line with market expectations, with no new policies and a relatively gentle policy. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is acceptable. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The cost side is expected to continue to decrease. In the short term, steel and ore will fluctuate, and in the medium - long term, a bearish view is maintained [17]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine start - up rate is restricted by policies, and in the short term, coal production is restricted by safety supervision and environmental protection. The potential negative feedback risk of weakening steel demand still restricts the prices of coal and coke. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to close out the previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. For manganese silicon, a bearish view is maintained in the medium term. The performance of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is weak, and the supply of ferrosilicon has decreased in the near two weeks, while the supply of manganese silicon has not significantly shrunk [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash has recovered, but the upstream start - up willingness is weak. The market has expectations for the cold - repair of glass production lines, and the follow - up should focus on the implementation of production cuts and other factors [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals show signs of weakening, but in the medium - long term, the demand is still positive. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand and the opportunity to buy on dips [24]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. At the end of the month, attention should be paid to the supply disturbance caused by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the fluctuation of coking coal prices, which may lead to a partial repair of valuation. In the future, it will gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - cut expectations [25]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The adjustment of the minimum order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts may weaken the trading enthusiasm and increase price fluctuations. The policy - expected pricing is stronger than the supply - demand contradiction pricing, and the spot price is expected to be strong [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short term, it will fluctuate and sort out. The supply is temporarily loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The cost and policy expectations support the cotton price, but the USDA report is negative [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the sugar price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is at a low level. It is advisable to wait and see, and short - sellers at low levels should be cautious [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to remain high, and the short - term contract is bearish. The long - term contract is supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures price may fluctuate. The出库 of apples is slightly reduced year - on - year, and the sales in the market are slow. The high price restricts consumption, and the substitution of citrus fruits suppresses demand [34]. 3.5.5 Corn - Attention should be paid to the change of spot prices in the production area. It is advisable to short - sell the far - month contracts on rallies or look for reverse - spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. The supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated, and the far - month contracts face greater supply pressure [35]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current view is that the price will fluctuate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, but the increase in the arrival volume in Cangzhou may suppress the spot price. The follow - up should focus on the performance in the consumption peak season [37]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The spot price lacks the driving force for a rebound and is likely to continue to be weak. It is advisable to short - sell the near - month contracts on rallies and control the position [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela drives the oil price to rebound, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may continue to decline. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $56/barrel and $52/barrel respectively [40]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The supply and demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and its price follows the oil price. The geopolitical situation affects the oil price, and the fuel oil inventory is accumulating [41]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The price may have a small - scale rebound due to production losses, but there is no strong driving force for a large - scale rebound [42]. 3.6.4 Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved, and the inventory is starting to decline, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is not recommended to continue to be bearish. The near - month contract may have a small - scale rebound, and the far - month contract can be considered for long - position allocation after smooth inventory reduction [43]. 3.6.5 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda futures price is mainly due to the strong performance of coking coal futures. The decline in the price of the liquid chlorine industry chain supports the far - month contract. It is advisable to stop profiting from the long - position in the near - month contract and hold the long - position in the main contract dynamically [44]. 3.6.6 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus in the future is the price bottom after the winter - storage game [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment. It is advisable to try to go long on dips and pay attention to market sentiment changes. Consider the positive spread between PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts on dips [47]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The decrease in supply supports the price rebound, but the high - level support is insufficient, and the futures price is prone to fall [48]. 3.6.9 Pulp - The old warehouse receipts are compulsorily cancelled, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable, a virtual short - call option on the 03 contract can be sold to achieve high - level risk - free hedging [49]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The follow - up is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is still under pressure [49]. 3.6.11 Urea - The high price in the futures market is not sustainable. A bearish view should be maintained under the high - supply pressure [50].