格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry's bottle chip sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chip futures rose at night on Thursday, with both long and short positions decreasing. Supply and cost - profit indicators were mostly stable this week, exports increased in October, and international oil prices rose due to supply risks. The short - term bottle chip price will follow raw materials to oscillate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take short - term long positions [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the main price of bottle chips rose 90 yuan to 5762 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 5675 yuan/ton (+10), and the price in South China was 5700 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 1359 lots to 64,700 lots, and short positions decreased by 707 lots to 62,400 lots [3] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 333,600 tons, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 73.05%, both unchanged from the previous week. The production cost was 5184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the weekly production profit was - 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In October 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 523,100 tons, an increase of 55,300 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.3321 million tons [3] - Due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela and the possibility of new US sanctions on Russia, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars to 56.15 dollars/barrel (+0.38% week - on - week), ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.14 dollars to 59.82 dollars/barrel (+0.23% week - on - week), and China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 4.0 to 428.3 yuan/ton, and rose 0.3 to 428.6 yuan/ton at night [3] - The US November CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [3] Market Logic - Last week, bottle chip supply changed little, downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking, and the inventory accumulation in December increased. The expected commissioning of new devices has little impact on the market. Cost support is average, and the short - term bottle chip price will follow raw materials to oscillate. The reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5670 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or take short - term long positions [3]