格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20251219

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate moderately upward. Traders are advised to hold long positions. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2120 - 2220. Key factors to monitor are the extent of port inventory reduction and the start - stop status of Iranian plants [1] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped by 6 yuan to 2166 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose by 25 yuan to 2155 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 9246 lots to 555,000 lots, and short positions increased by 6251 lots to 645,500 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 90.5%, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The overseas methanol operating rate is 62%, a 1.8% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China is 1218,800 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. East China's inventory decreased by 31,000 tons, while South China's inventory increased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a 10.86% increase [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 86,900 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 6.25% increase. The olefin operating rate is 89.4%, a 0.7% decrease; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, a 1.9% decrease; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.1%, a 5.4% decrease; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.5%, a 2.6% increase; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.5%, a 1.1% increase; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, a 0.8% decrease [1] - Macro: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' delayed report shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year has risen from 26.6% to 28.8%. Traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - Recently, Iran's 2.3 - million - ton Kaveh plant has shut down due to gas restrictions, and the 1.65 - million - ton Busher plant has shut down due to equipment issues, with an expected one - week maintenance. The second round of plant shutdowns in Iran has begun. This week, port inventory continued to decline while inland inventory increased, which is in line with market expectations. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous month [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]