2025年11月财政数据点评
Ping An Securities·2025-12-19 01:11

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal revenue growth for the first 11 months of 2025 was 0.8% year-on-year, maintaining the previous month's pace[3] - Public fiscal expenditure growth for the same period was 1.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The deficit utilization rate for the first account was 62.2%, which is 9.2 percentage points lower than the average of the past three years[3] Tax Revenue Insights - National tax revenue growth for the first 11 months was 1.80%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Non-tax revenue saw a decline of 3.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a high base from last year[3] - Tax revenue growth has been positive for 8 consecutive months, reaching 2.8% in November, despite a slight decline from the previous month[3] Fiscal Spending Focus - Science and technology expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year, while social welfare spending increased by 5.4%, both outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth[3] - Infrastructure spending remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 13.7%, showing a marginal decline from the previous month[3] - In November, government fund revenue fell by 15.8%, but expenditure grew by 2.8%, indicating stronger expenditure performance[3] Overall Fiscal Outlook - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.5 percentage points, while expenditure growth decreased by 0.7 percentage points, suggesting less urgency for short-term fiscal stimulus[3] - The central economic work conference emphasized accelerating fund disbursement to promote actual spending and physical work volume[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and greater-than-expected overseas economic downturns[11]