宝城期货资讯早班车-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive market information including macro - data, commodity investment, finance, and the stock market. In 2025, the investment downward pressure has increased, and measures are needed to expand effective investment. The consumer structure is upgrading, and new consumption models are emerging. The bond and stock markets show different trends, and various industries face different opportunities and challenges [2][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous quarter (5.2%) but faster than the same period last year (4.6%). The manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.2%, slightly up from the previous month but lower than the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activity in November was 49.5%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. The social financing scale increment in November was 8161.00 billion yuan. The M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in November were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8.0% respectively. The new RMB loans in November were 3900.00 billion yuan. The CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in November was - 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods in November was 4.0%. The export value in November increased 5.9% year - on - year, and the import value increased 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port was officially launched, with the "zero - tariff" commodity scope expanding to over 6600 tariff items. China re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, and approved some rare - earth export general license applications. The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. The exchange issued trading limit regulations [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metal - Morgan Stanley believes that as zinc exports increase, LME zinc inventories are rising, and mine - end supply growth will continue in 2026. Korea Zinc plans to invest 15 trillion won in South Korea by 2029 to increase strategic mineral production. ICBC will strengthen the management of its agency business for individual precious - metal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The London Metal Exchange plans to implement new position - limit rules from next July [4][5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Westpac warns that iron - ore prices will drop 20% next year due to China's steel production cuts and new supply. Rio Tinto will start the first phase of a project in Western Australia, with an estimated annual iron - ore output of 50 million tons by 2030. The European Commission proposes to expand the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to downstream steel and aluminum - intensive products [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU Parliament plans to phase out Russian natural - gas imports by the end of 2027. Russia may extend the diesel export ban for non - oil - producing countries. China's first offshore CCUS well was drilled in the South China Sea, which is expected to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The USDA expects global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to increase 4.6% year - on - year to 189.3 million tons [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 18, the central bank conducted 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6.97 billion yuan. The market believes this is to meet the cross - year capital demand. The central bank will issue 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22 [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance held a meeting on the "Three New" pilot projects. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued regulations on liability - investigation for central enterprises' illegal business investments. China re - implemented export license management for steel and approved some rare - earth export general license applications. The "Reward Economy" is emerging among the young, driving domestic demand. The central government will prioritize expanding domestic demand in 2026. The bank - wealth management market is booming, with the scale reaching about 34 trillion yuan by the end of November. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's urban housing demand is estimated to be about 49.8 billion square meters. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China reduced its holdings. Germany plans to issue a record 512 billion euros of federal debt next year. Trump said the next Fed chair nominee will support "substantial" rate cuts. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates were lower than expected, but the data reliability is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the continuing claims increased. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. Some bond - related events and overseas credit ratings changes are also reported [12][13][14][15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was generally strong, with most interest - rate bond yields falling, but the 30 - year active bond yield rising slightly. Treasury - bond futures mostly rose. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose. The exchange - bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible - bond index rose slightly. The money - market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds mostly fell [18][19][20][21]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On Thursday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 41 basis points at the 16:30 close. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated by 10 basis points. The US dollar index rose 0.04% in New York, and most non - US currencies rose [22]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed - income believes that since November, the yields of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have generally risen. Huatai Fixed - income thinks that the central economic work conference's monetary policy is discretionary, and the fiscal policy may have a certain improvement in the economic quarter - on - quarter, but the project - end constraints and other effects need to be observed. Guosheng Macro believes that the November fiscal revenue and expenditure weakened, and the 2026 fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive". CITIC Securities explains the Fed's open - market operations and the new round of reserve - management bond purchases in December 2025 [23][24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 19, 169 bonds will be listed, 69 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 201 bonds will pay principal and interest [25]. 3.4 Stock Market - The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital - market "14th Five - Year Plan". The A - share market had a divergence in large and small indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index falling 2.17%. The Hong Kong stock market had narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.12%. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is consulting the market on optimizing the trading - unit framework. Morgan Stanley expects the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index to have double - digit growth in 2026. Insurance asset - management institutions have been actively registering asset - support plans this year [27][28][29].