市场监管局：推动形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term gold price to fluctuate; silver over - bought, watch for downside risk; gold - silver ratio expected to rise [15] - US Dollar Index: To weaken [20] - US Stocks: To continue high - level volatility in the short term [22] - A - share Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [25] - Treasury Futures: Be cautious about the rise of TL; be cautious when chasing the rise [28] - Power Coal: Port coal price to continue to decline; observe policy changes around 700 yuan [31] - Iron Ore: Overall black market to remain volatile; ore price to have no short - term trend [32] - Soybean Meal: To remain weak; consider shorting on rallies for the May contract if no major South American weather anomalies [35] - Vegetable Oils: Monitor Indonesian biodiesel policy and Malaysian high - frequency supply - demand data, wait for supply pressure relief [37] - Corn Starch: Short - term rice - flour price difference may not deviate significantly from processing cost; may widen after approaching previous lows [39] - Corn: Contracts 03 and 05 to remain weakly volatile in the near term [41] - Live Pigs: Consider closing short positions on near - term contracts; focus on medium - to long - term layout opportunities for far - term contracts at low levels [44] - Steel: Treat steel prices with a volatile mindset in the short term [49] - Polysilicon: Spot price may not decline; new price depends on downstream conduction; consider buying on dips after market pull - back [52] - Industrial Silicon: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [55] - Lead: Unilaterally, close short positions; for arbitrage, remain on the sidelines [56] - Zinc: Unilaterally, buy on medium - term pull - backs; for arbitrage, hold positive spread contracts for monthly spreads and maintain reverse spread strategy for domestic - foreign spreads [59] - Copper: Unilaterally, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term; for arbitrage, remain on the sidelines [62] - Nickel: Monitor whether the quota tightening can be implemented [66] - Lithium Carbonate: In the medium - to long - term, buy on dips; expect a pull - back after factory复产 [68] - Tin: Be wary of inventory build - up pressure and price decline risks [72] - Carbon Emissions: CEA price to fluctuate in the short term [75] - Natural Gas: Nymex downward trend remains unchanged [77] - PTA: Narrow - range volatility in the short term; try to go long lightly on dips [80] - LLDPE: Polyethylene price likely to decline [81] - Methanol: Adopt a bullish mindset for the 05 contract, target price range 2200 - 2250 [84] - Caustic Soda: Supply - demand contradiction eases; liquid chlorine price decline may support caustic soda price [86] - PVC: Short - term rebound may not be sustainable; expect improvement in the supply - surplus situation in 2026 [89] - Soda Ash: Adopt a bearish mindset for the medium - term; short far - term contracts on rallies [91] - Float Glass: Adopt a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - term [92] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The US core inflation has slowed down unexpectedly, which has an impact on the US dollar index, gold, US stocks and other financial products. The domestic commodity market shows different trends due to factors such as supply and demand, policies and inventory [14][19][21] - The A - share market shows a pattern of small - and large - cap differentiation, and the long - term bullish pattern needs policy support [24] - The bond market shows a differentiation between short - and long - term bonds, and the trend of ultra - long bonds is difficult to judge [27] - The commodity market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies and inventory, and different varieties show different trends [29][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, and the US November CPI growth rate slowed down. The gold price fluctuated and closed down, and the silver price corrected. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts increased slightly, but the inflation data may be inaccurate. The short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price may decline [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US House of Representatives passed a bill to simplify AI infrastructure construction approval. Trump is interviewing Fed chair candidates. The US core inflation slowed down unexpectedly, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November inflation pressure further eased, and the market's expectation of Fed interest rate cuts became more optimistic, but concerns about over - investment in AI still exist. The US stocks are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term [21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Market regulators aim to create a high - quality and competitive market order, and the NDRC plans to expand emerging industry investment. The A - share market shows small - and large - cap differentiation, and the long - term bullish pattern needs policy support. Allocate long positions in each index evenly [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market shows a differentiation between short - and long - term bonds. The price of ultra - long bonds is dominated by institutional behavior, and its trend is difficult to judge. Be cautious about the rise of TL [26][27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices remained stable. The domestic port coal price continued to decline rapidly, and the actual inventory was high. The coal price may reach 700 yuan soon. Observe policy changes around this price [29][30][31] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company raised funds for an iron ore project. The iron - making volume decreased, and the steel mills' raw material procurement was cautious. The overall black market remained volatile, and the ore price had no short - term trend [32] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean yield in Brazil's Paraná state remained unchanged, and the USDA's weekly export sales report was in line with expectations. The CBOT soybean price continued to decline due to export concerns. The domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient, and the inventory was high. The soybean meal price is expected to remain weak [33][34][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased year - on - year. The palm oil market fluctuated, and Indonesia's supply was relatively tight. Monitor relevant policies and data, and wait for supply pressure relief [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rates of the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries decreased, while the consumption of corn and starch in starch sugar products increased slightly. The CS - C futures price difference remained low and volatile. The short - term rice - flour price difference may widen after approaching previous lows [38][39] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventories of deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises increased. The spot price was stable with a weak trend, and the 03 and 05 contracts are expected to remain weakly volatile [40][41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - A company's executive left, and another provided guarantees. In the short term, the live pig market is expected to remain weakly volatile. In the long term, if capacity is cleared, the far - term contracts may see valuation repair [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased. China's steel exports and production showed different trends. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the steel export license management does not limit the quantity and business qualification. The steel price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [45][46][49] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The exchange adjusted the minimum order quantity for polysilicon futures. The silicon material manufacturers planned to control production, and the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells changed. The spot price may not decline, and consider buying on dips after market pull - back [50][51][52] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation. The production of industrial silicon in some regions may change, and the inventory situation is uncertain. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][54][55] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price and domestic lead price fluctuated weakly. The social inventory of lead decreased marginally. The supply of recycled lead was under pressure, and the demand was weakening. Consider closing short positions [56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated narrowly, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. The domestic refinery production cuts were gradually realized, and the zinc demand was strong. Recommend buying on medium - term pull - backs, holding positive spread contracts for monthly spreads, and maintaining reverse spread strategy for domestic - foreign spreads [57][58][59] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper production showed different trends. The BHP CEO said that the copper supply shortage would continue. The US core CPI decline supported the copper price, but the short - term fundamentals were weak. Maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel brand was approved for LME delivery. The planned nickel ore output in 2026 may decrease, which may affect the supply - demand balance. The current nickel production is facing losses, and the inventory is accumulating. Monitor the implementation of the quota policy [63][64][65] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Bolivia hopes to use lithium mines and US assistance to end its economic recession. The lithium carbonate market corrected, the inventory decreased, and the supply increased slightly. The price may decline after the factory复产. In the medium - to long - term, buy on dips [67][68] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Micron Technology's revenue forecast exceeded expectations. The tin inventory continued to accumulate, and the previous supply disruptions were alleviated. The demand remained weak. Be wary of price decline risks [69][70][71] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The impact of the carry - over policy may be mainly emotional. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [73][74][75] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory decreased, but the decline rate may slow down. The Nymex price is expected to continue its downward trend [76][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals decreased. The PTA price fluctuated narrowly. The near - term inventory is expected to decrease, and the bottom support is strong. Try to go long lightly on dips [78][79][80] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The polyethylene production decreased slightly. Producers are eager to destock, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak. The polyethylene price is likely to decline [81] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory increased slightly. Iran's second - round production cuts may benefit the bulls. Adopt a bullish mindset for the 05 contract, target price range 2200 - 2250 [82][83][84] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was stable. The device operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply - demand contradiction eased, and the liquid chlorine price decline may support the caustic soda price [85][86] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price strengthened slightly. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and the supply - surplus situation may improve in 2026 [87][88][89] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturers' inventory decreased. The supply pressure will gradually appear, and the downstream demand is weak. Adopt a bearish mindset for the medium - term; short far - term contracts on rallies [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturers' inventory increased. The market was driven by market sentiment and short - covering. The glass market remains in a surplus situation. Adopt a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - term [92]