海通证券晨报-20251219

Macro Research - The growth rate of narrow public budget revenue in China has slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.8% from January to November 2025, and the growth rate in November was flat compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Narrow public budget expenditure increased by 1.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a decrease of 3.7% in November compared to the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decline [2] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a significant drop of 15.8% in November, primarily due to the adjustment in the real estate market [3] Company Research: AVIC Avionics (中航机载) - AVIC Avionics plans to acquire a 59.1816% stake in Hangtou Yuhua for 202 million yuan, aiming to enhance its industrial chain layout and strengthen synergy [7] - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 1.25% to 16.774 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, although net profit declined by 17.73% due to credit impairment losses [8] - The acquisition is expected to complement the industrial chain, with the five target companies each possessing unique technical expertise, which will help AVIC Avionics strengthen its collaborative capabilities and foster new growth points [7] Industry Research: Cultural Communication Industry - The IP food industry in China is rapidly growing, with the market size expected to increase from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan by 2024, representing a CAGR of 18.2% [10] - The IP fun food segment, which combines food with collectible items, is projected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.6% [10] - The core competitiveness in the IP fun food market lies in supply chain management and IP operation, as the differentiation of snack products is low, making cost control crucial [11] Company Research: Three Gorges Tourism (三峡旅游) - Three Gorges Tourism is expected to benefit from the planned construction of four inter-provincial vacation cruise ships, which will enhance overall customer spending and profit levels [27] - The company reported a 20.2% year-on-year increase in comprehensive tourism business revenue to 286 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a record high of 1.2525 million cruise passengers [28] - The inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to provide a new growth driver, with the first two ships expected to be operational by June and December 2026 [29]