国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil may have a short - term rebound and is in the process of bottom - hunting through oscillations [2][4] - Soybean oil is struggling to stabilize due to the weak performance of US soybeans [2][4] - Soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation [2][11] - Soybean No.1 is oscillating [2][11] - For corn, attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13] - Sugar is running weakly [2][17] - Cotton is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and downstream demand should be monitored [2][22] - Eggs will maintain an oscillating state [2][28] - The peak demand for pigs during the Winter Solstice has arrived [2][30] - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2][36] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 8,368 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase and a night - time closing price of 8,406 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 7,802 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease and a night - time closing price of 7,776 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [5] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of October decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons, domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons, and production was 4.35 million tons, higher than September. The export volume in October was 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year [6] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a daytime closing price of 4041 yuan/ton with a 1.25% decrease and a night - time closing price of 4042 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605 had a daytime closing price of 2747 yuan/ton with a 0.69% decrease and a night - time closing price of 2742 yuan/ton with a 0.11% decrease [10] - Macro and Industry News: On December 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to long - position liquidation, global sufficient supply, and unclear Chinese demand prospects. Exporters sold 114,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season [10][12] Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2601 was 2216 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease during the day and 2219 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2190 yuan/ton with a 0.73% decrease during the day and remained unchanged at night [14] - Macro and Industry News: The prices of northern corn for bulk shipping and containerized first - class grain at ports remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of corn in Northeast China were slightly lower in some areas, while those in North China were oscillating strongly [15] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.48 cents/pound with a 0.28 - cent decrease. The mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan decrease, and the futures main contract price was 5102 yuan/ton with a 37 - yuan decrease [17] - Macro and Industry News: As of December 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [17] Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,960 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase during the day and 13965 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease during the day and 20015 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease at night [22] - Macro and Industry News: The spot trading of cotton has weakened, and the prices of pure - cotton yarn have fluctuated. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, but the overall trend is still weak [23] Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3067 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.87% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2602 was 2916 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.48% decrease [28] - Macro and Industry News: Not provided Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,150 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,360 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 also had corresponding changes [32] - Macro and Industry News: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, Yangxiang, and COFCO registered warehouse receipts from December 4 to 15. The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by - products from the EU [33] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9400 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7300 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK601 was 8066 yuan/ton with no change, and the closing price of PK603 was 7996 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [36] - Macro and Industry News: In Henan, the prices of peanuts were generally stable or slightly lower; in Jilin, the prices were basically stable; in Liaoning, the trading was in a stalemate; in Shandong, the prices were basically stable [37]