宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月19日）-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short-term view is bullish, the medium-term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that the macro atmosphere weakens and the demand for hedging rises. The macro level shows a weak US dollar index, which is beneficial to the gold price. There is significant technical pressure at the 4380 US dollars level for New York gold and the 980 yuan level for Shanghai gold. After the China-US summit in Busan at the end of October, the market risk appetite has continued to rise, and the gold price has shown a high-level oscillatory trend [1][3]. - For copper, the short-term view is oscillatory, the medium-term view is bullish, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that the macro environment is loose and there is a reduction in mine supply. The US dollar is falling, which is beneficial to non-ferrous metals. The spot discount is weakening, and the 1 - 2 month spread is also continuously weakening, showing a pattern where the near - term is weak and the far - term is strong [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Gold - Short - term: Bullish [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory and bullish [1] - Core Logic: The macro atmosphere weakens, the demand for hedging rises. The US dollar index is weak, which is beneficial to the gold price. There is technical pressure at 4380 US dollars for New York gold and 980 yuan for Shanghai gold. After the China - US summit in Busan, the market risk appetite has risen, and the gold price is oscillating at a high level. Technically, pay attention to the resistance at the 4400 US dollars level [3]. Copper - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Bullish [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory and bullish [1] - Core Logic: The macro environment is loose and there is a reduction in mine supply. The US dollar is falling, which benefits non - ferrous metals. The spot discount is weakening, and the 1 - 2 month spread is also weakening, presenting a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 93,000 yuan level [4].