宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年12月19日）-20251219

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday tendency of slightly weak oscillation, mainly due to the game between expectations and reality [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all oscillatory, with the intraday being slightly weak, presenting a low - level oscillation state. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to continue oscillating [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have stabilized. Rebar production has slightly increased but remains at an annual low, providing support for steel prices, though the sustainability needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is running steadily, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing but still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. Demand will continue to decline seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Currently, the supply and demand of rebar are running steadily, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. Under the game between expectations and reality, rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].