宝城期货股指期货早报（2025年12月19日）-20251219

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. In the short term, the policy is in a window period, and the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient. The policy is expected to focus on the first quarter of next year. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, but if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. As the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, market risk preference will gradually recover [5]. - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term views are both "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "range - bound", with the core logic being the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the view reference is "range - bound". The core logic is the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "strong - biased", and the medium - term view is "shock", with a reference view of "range - bound". Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1672.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 162.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, and the stock index remains within the shock range. In the short term, due to the policy window period, the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient, and the driving force of policy benefit expectations is weak. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, and the driving force of funds is also weak. However, if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. Overall, the stock index is range - bound in the short term [5].