国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The macro sentiment resonates with the fundamentals, and the prices are firm [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon: The sector resonates with the fundamentals, and the trend is oscillating and slightly strong [2][10]. - Silicomanganese: The long and short sentiments are intertwined and in a game, and the trend is widely oscillating [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal: Both show wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Logs: The price is oscillating at a low level [2][17]. 3. Summary by Product Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of I2605 was 777.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.24%. The import and some domestic ore prices increased slightly. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - News: From January to November, national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, with residential investment down 15.0% [4]. - Trend strength: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,125 yuan/ton and 3,277 yuan/ton, up 1.40% and 1.05% respectively. Spot prices in various regions increased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [6]. - News: On December 18, in terms of weekly data, rebar production increased by 2.9 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 16.8 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 26.96 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 6.37 tons; rebar apparent demand increased by 5.55 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.69 tons. In early December 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel increased by 2.8%, pig iron decreased by 3.4%, and steel decreased by 12.1%. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [7][8]. - Trend strength: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/ton, while silicomanganese remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [10]. - News: On December 18, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed. Some silicon - iron plants had production adjustments. UMK and NMT increased the manganese ore quotation for January 2026 [11][12]. - Trend strength: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal were mostly stable, and some coke prices increased. The basis and spreads changed [13]. - News: From January to November, national real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [14]. - Trend strength: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16]. Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of various log types in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable [18]. - News: From January to November, national real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [20]. - Trend strength: 0 [20].