能源化策略：地缘仍扰动原油市场，化?预期?量开始主导

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is continued volatility, with a focus on phased stop - profit for short positions in chemicals. [3] Core Viewpoints - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the US in November showed a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021, easing price pressures. After the CPI release, US stock index futures rose, and Treasury yields and the dollar declined. Near - term factors affecting oil prices include US sanctions on Russia and the impact on Venezuela's oil supply. As most chemical futures shift from the 01 to the 05 contract, expected trading will become the main trend. However, high inventory and potential new inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will increase the volatility of the 05 contract. [1][2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - View: Geopolitical issues in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. In the short term, geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations, but there is significant downside pressure in the next quarter. - Main Logic: The US may further escalate sanctions on Russia, and the situation in Venezuela is uncertain. Although Venezuela's supply is a concern, the US has no extreme remarks about war on Venezuela for now, and the expected supply is still in an over - supply state in the short - term. [7] Asphalt - View: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has eased, and asphalt futures prices have fallen back below 3000. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated. - Main Logic: OPEC+ continued to increase production in December. The US's expected war on Venezuela was disproven. Oil prices drove asphalt futures down. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the supply - demand of asphalt is weak with large inventory pressure. Also, the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. [7] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate widely, and the supply - demand is weak. - Main Logic: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the expected US war on Venezuela was disproven. The three drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak. The demand in the off - season is also low. [8] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. It has a strong product attribute and is affected by the supply - demand situation at home and abroad. [9] PX - View: Driven by strong macro and commodity sentiment, prices rise. It is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, with PXN expected to be in the [260, 320] range. - Main Logic: International oil prices rebounded from a low level, and PX prices were strong under cost support. With the support of polyester and PTA loads, the price is in an upward - biased pattern. [10] PTA - View: Spot circulation is tight, the expected inventory accumulation amplitude is narrowed, and the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price will follow the cost to fluctuate and strengthen, and the processing fee will operate within a range. - Main Logic: Upstream PX is strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - side variables are limited, and downstream polyester runs stably. The inventory accumulation amplitude of PTA is expected to converge. [11][12] Pure Benzene - View: It fluctuates due to expected differences. - Main Logic: It is in a state of weak reality and expected differences. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. [13][15] Styrene - View: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it fluctuates. - Main Logic: The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but the supply - demand is in a tight - balanced state, providing some support. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in December, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upside. [17] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - View: The load has increased again, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The short - term price will fluctuate in a range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large. - Main Logic: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply - demand has weakened again. Although it is currently in a loose balance, there is a long - term inventory accumulation expectation. [18][19] Short - Fiber - View: The upstream cost support has increased, and the price will follow the upstream to fluctuate. - Main Logic: The upstream polyester raw materials have strengthened, and the downstream reduction in production is not obvious. The inventory of short - fiber has decreased, and the price has risen with the upstream. [21][22] Polyester Bottle Chips - View: The upstream raw material cost supports the price, and the absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials. - Main Logic: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol have different trends. Polyester bottle chips are supported by cost and fluctuate with the raw materials. [23] Methanol - View: Affected by overseas disturbances and strengthened cost support, it will continue to fluctuate and strengthen. - Main Logic: There are differences in the methanol market. The inland market is in a state of shock and consolidation, while the port market is strong due to inventory reduction and slow shipping. [27][28] Urea - View: Boosted by market information and strengthened cost support, the futures price rebounds in the short term. It may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but significant upward movement is under pressure. - Main Logic: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has weakened slightly. The inventory shows a de - stocking trend, and the Indian tender and coal price rebound have driven the price up. [28][29] LLDPE (Plastic) - View: The cost - side support is limited, and it fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: Oil prices are volatile, and the fundamental support for plastics is limited. The supply reduction expectation is weak, and the demand is entering the off - season. [31][32] PP - View: Supported by the expectation of maintenance, it fluctuates. - Main Logic: PDH profits are under short - term pressure, and there is a strong expectation of maintenance for gas - fired refineries. However, the current supply pressure is large. [32][33] PL - View: Supported by the strong spot and the expectation of PDH maintenance, it fluctuates. - Main Logic: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The spot inventory is controllable, but the downstream buying attitude is cautious. [33] PVC - View: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. It may fluctuate in the medium term, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. - Main Logic: Overseas devices have exited, and export orders are booming. However, the domestic marginal enterprise production reduction is limited, and the downstream demand is weak seasonally. [36] Caustic Soda - View: With low valuation and weak expectation, it may fluctuate. In the short term, the market sentiment is good and the upstream in Shandong has reduced inventory, but in the long - term, the supply - demand is under pressure. - Main Logic: The "anti - involution" sentiment has a short - term boosting effect. In the short term, the upstream in Shandong has reduced inventory, but in the long - term, the high - supply pressure exists. [37][38] Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are presented, with different changes in each variety. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is 50 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PTA is -58 with no change. [40] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties are provided, such as the basis of asphalt is -42, with a change of 60, and the warehouse receipt is 54100. [41] - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations are shown, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is -194, with a change of -57, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 1015, with a change of 69. [43] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis is provided in the given content for this part. [44][56][68] Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 18, 2025 shows that the commodity index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial products index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. [283] - Sector Index: The energy index on December 18, 2025 is 1080.56, with a daily increase of 0.71%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.54%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.28%, and a year - to - date decrease of 12.00%. [284]