铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US CPI and core CPI in November dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, far lower than market expectations, but data credibility is questionable. The market reacted positively, with expectations of Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and was vague on easing [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market showed a structured rise with reduced trading volume, and the bond market was also divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver prices may face adjustment risks, and platinum and palladium should not be chased at high prices due to regulatory measures and data uncertainties [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to mild inflation data and tight fundamentals [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily due to positive macro factors and good fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile as the supply remains abundant [10]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to cost support [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating as there is support from inventory reduction but also pressure from market uncertainties [12]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to low inventory and cost support [14]. - Tin prices' upward momentum is weakening, and chasing high prices should be cautious [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile as supply and demand show marginal improvement [17]. - Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to policy stimulation [21]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as US soybeans continue to decline and the supply in China is sufficient [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating as Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October and market factors are complex [24]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US November CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected. The data's credibility is in doubt. The market expects Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and didn't give clear easing guidance [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced volume, showing a structured market. The bond market was divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices had a short - term rise and then a fall after the US CPI data release, facing increased adjustment risks. Platinum and palladium prices continued to rise, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted platinum futures' daily opening positions, so chasing high prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper's main contract oscillated upward, and LME copper oscillated around $11,700. Mild inflation data is beneficial for a dovish stance. Fundamentally, mine restarts are slow, and inventories are low. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 21,955 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. LME aluminum closed at $2,917/ton, up 0.38%. US inflation data boosted rate - cut expectations, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory verified year - end consumption resilience. Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures' main contract closed at 2,553 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The supply is abundant with inventory flowing into the market and imports arriving. Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures' main contract closed at 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. At the end of the year, both supply and demand decreased. Cast aluminum prices are supported by the cost of scrap aluminum and are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly. The US CPI data had a limited impact. Consumption showed resilience, and social inventory declined. However, LME had continuous small - volume warehousing. Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead's main contract oscillated narrowly. The supply side had a mixed situation of reduction and resumption. The terminal was in the off - season, but low inventory and cost support are expected to keep lead prices oscillating narrowly [13][14]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin's main contract oscillated strongly at night. The supply - side disturbance support weakened, and downstream acceptance of high - priced tin was under pressure. Tin prices' upward momentum is expected to weaken [15]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side shows some changes. Social inventory rose slightly. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile [16][17]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products were slightly adjusted, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [18][19]. 3.12 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated upward. The supply was strong with high overseas shipments and port inventory accumulation, while the demand was weak as steel mills cut production. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. Policy stimulation strengthened the bottom support. Coking enterprises' costs increased, and the supply was generally loose. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. US soybeans continued to decline, and the supply in China was sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil futures showed a mixed performance. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October due to increased domestic consumption. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating [24].