国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [1][2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [1][2]. - Copper: With decreasing internal and external inventories, prices are supported [1][2]. - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [1][2]. - Lead: Decreasing inventories support prices [1][2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [1][2]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [1][2]. - Alumina: Slightly declining [1][2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Platinum: With continuous inflows into ETFs, prices are oscillating upwards [1][2]. - Palladium: Successfully breaking through previous highs, with strong upward momentum [1][2]. - Nickel: The structural surplus is shifting, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [1][2]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [1][2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: - For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 980.50 with a daily increase of 0.08%, and the night - session closing price was 980.20 with a 0.02% increase [4]. - For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15521 with a daily increase of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 15228.00 with a - 1.42% decrease [4]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Inventory and Spread: - Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged, and silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) also remained unchanged [4]. - Gold and silver inventories showed different changes, with Shanghai gold inventory decreasing by 6 kg and Comex silver inventory decreasing by 895,355 ounces [4]. - Spreads of gold and silver contracts also showed various changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation slowed more than expected, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England had different policy stances [5][9]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 92,600 with a - 0.24% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 92870 with a 0.29% increase [10]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai copper index decreased, while the trading volume of LME copper 3M electronic disk increased [10]. - Inventory and Spread: - Both Shanghai copper and LME copper inventories decreased, with LME copper's注销仓单 ratio decreasing by 1.14% [10]. - Various copper spreads showed different changes, such as the Shanghai copper spot to LME cash spread decreasing by 215 [10]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation slowed, and there were industry developments like Korea Zinc's investment plan and Peru's copper production increase [10][12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 23035 with a 0.26% daily increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closing price was 3071.5 with a 1.20% increase [13]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc decreased compared to the previous day [13]. - Inventory and Spread: - Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 1920 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased by 1700 tons [13]. - Spreads such as Shanghai 0 zinc升贴水 increased by 20, and LME CASH - 3M升贴水 decreased by 5.1 [13]. - News: Trump's remarks on the Fed chair and US inflation data were reported [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16785 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closing price was 1961 with a 0.98% increase [16]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai lead and LME lead decreased compared to the previous day [16]. - Inventory and Spread: - Both Shanghai lead and LME lead inventories decreased, with LME lead注销仓单 also decreasing by 3450 tons [16]. - Spreads such as Shanghai 1 lead升贴水 remained unchanged, and LME CASH - 3M升贴水 increased by 0.97 [16]. - News: US inflation data and ECB policy were mentioned [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 334,380 with a 1.76% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 338,950 with a 1.18% increase [19]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 76,691 compared to the previous day [19]. - Inventory and Spread: - Both Shanghai tin and LME tin inventories increased, with LME tin's注销仓单 ratio decreasing by 0.38% [19]. - Spreads such as SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 9,900 [19]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other metals, news about US inflation, central bank policies, etc. were reported [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: - For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21955 with a 40 increase compared to the previous day, and the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2917 with an 11 increase [24]. - For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2553 with a - 5 decrease [24]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21110 with a 65 increase [24]. - Trading volumes and positions of these metals showed different changes [24]. - Inventory and Spread: - Aluminum inventories in different places showed different trends, and spreads such as LME aluminum cash - 3M价差 and near - month contract to consecutive - one contract spreads also changed [24]. - News: ECB and Bank of England policies were reported [25]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: - Platinum futures prices showed an upward trend, with the closing price of platinum futures 2606 at 542.60 with a 2.85% increase [27]. - Palladium prices also increased, with the closing price of New York lithium main - continuous at 1778.50 with a 5.05% increase [27]. - Trading volumes and positions of platinum and palladium showed different changes [27]. - Inventory and Spread: - Platinum and palladium ETF holdings increased, and spreads such as PT9995 to PT2606价差 and 人民币现货包金价格 to PD2606价差 changed [27]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation data, central bank policies, and other news were reported [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 113,940 with a 140 increase compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,420 with a 40 increase [31]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel decreased compared to the previous day [31]. - Industry - related Data: - Various prices in the nickel industry chain, such as 1 imported nickel, 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron, etc., showed different changes [31]. - In the stainless steel industry, prices of 304/2B卷 - 毛边, 304/2B卷 - 切边, etc., also changed [31]. - Macro and Industry News: There were news about Indonesian nickel - related policies, China's import subsidy suspension, and US tariff threats [31][33].