国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report The report offers comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, providing investors with reference for trading decisions [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation data and central bank policies [2][5]. - Silver: Adjusting at a high level, trend strength is 0. Silver prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [2][5]. - Platinum: ETFs are continuously flowing in, and prices are oscillating upwards, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. - Palladium: Successfully breaking through the previous high, with strong upward momentum, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. Base Metals - Copper: Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, providing support for prices, trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - Zinc: Moving sideways in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - Lead: Inventory reduction is supporting prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions, trend strength is 1 [2][20]. - Aluminum: Oscillating within a range, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - Alumina: Slightly declining, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - Nickel: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - related: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but some products are affected by it. For example, asphalt is in a low - level oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][78]. - PTA: Cost support is relatively strong, with a 4500 - 4800 range operation suggested, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - MEG: In a range - bound market, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - Rubber: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][70]. - Synthetic Rubber: The upward trend is slowing down, trend strength is 0 [2][74]. - LLDPE: Supply elasticity is limited, and valuation continues to be under pressure, trend strength is 0 [2][92]. - PP: Factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the market is moving sideways, trend strength is 0 [2][95]. - Caustic Soda: There will still be pressure in the later stage, trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - Paper Pulp: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength is 0 [2][108]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][111]. - Urea: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][115]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change, trend strength is 0 [2][119]. - LPG: Strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term, trend strength is 0 [2][123]. - Propylene: Narrowly adjusting in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][124]. - PVC: The rebound is difficult to sustain, trend strength is 0 [2][132]. - Fuel Oil: Consolidating in the short - term with support below, trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Narrowly oscillating, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrowing, trend strength is 0 [2][136]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: May rebound in the short - term and is searching for a bottom while oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - Soybean Oil: Weak performance of US soybeans, and it is difficult for soybean oil to stabilize, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - Soybean Meal: Oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - Soybean: Oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market, trend strength is 0 [2][169]. - Sugar: Weakly operating, trend strength is - 1 [2][173]. - Cotton: Oscillating with an upward bias, attention should be paid to downstream demand, trend strength is 0 [2][69][178]. - Eggs: Maintaining an oscillating trend, trend strength is 0 [2][184]. - Hogs: The peak demand during the Winter Solstice has passed, trend strength is - 1 [2][186]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases, trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): In an oscillating market, trend strength is 0 [2][138]. Fibers - Short Fiber: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - Bottle Chip: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. Paper - Offset Printing Paper: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach, trend strength is 0 [2][151]. Aromatics - Pure Benzene: Oscillating in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][156].