LPG：短期坚挺，趋势承压，丙烯：短期窄幅调整

Report Title - LPG: Short-term firmness, long-term pressure; Propylene: Short-term narrow adjustment [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The LPG market shows short-term firmness but faces long-term pressure, and the propylene market will experience short-term narrow adjustments [1][2] Market Data Summary Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,229 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.50%, and its night session closed at 4,236 with a 0.17% increase; PG2602 closed at 4,109 yesterday with a 0.61% increase, and its night session closed at 4,120 with a 0.27% increase; PL2601 closed at 5,977 yesterday with a 0.67% increase, and its night session closed at 5,942 with a -0.59% decrease; PL2602 closed at 5,789 yesterday with a 0.45% increase, and its night session closed at 5,758 with a -0.54% decrease; PL2603 closed at 5,770 yesterday with a 0.45% increase, and its night session closed at 5,728 with a -0.73% decrease [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601's trading volume yesterday was 17,453, a decrease of 15,323 from the previous day, and its open interest was 13,363, a decrease of 5,993; PG2602's trading volume was 44,507, a decrease of 968, and its open interest was 82,566, an increase of 3,372; PL2601's trading volume was 243, an increase of 120, and its open interest was 1,384, a decrease of 162; PL2602's trading volume was 11,065, a decrease of 6,057, and its open interest was 8,038, a decrease of 1,166; PL2603's trading volume was 31,970, a decrease of 3,179, and its open interest was 17,498, a decrease of 371 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 321 (previous day: 312); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG01 contract was 371 (previous day: 392); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was -22 (previous day: 78); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was -52 (previous day: 38); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -102 (previous day: -12) [2] Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0% (last week: 72.9%); the MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (previous: 69.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 35.8% (unchanged) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 representing the most bearish view and 2 representing the most bullish view [6] Market News CP Paper Cargo Prices - On December 17, 2025, the January CP paper cargo price for propane was 499 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 492 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The February CP paper cargo price for propane was 495 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH plants have maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., and others, with some starting as early as 2023 and some scheduled for 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [8] LPG Plant Maintenance Plans - Several domestic LPG plants have maintenance plans, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou. The maintenance durations range from 30 to 72 days [9]