有色金属日报-20251219

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment is not pessimistic due to the Fed's restart of Treasury purchases and the positive tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the surplus pressure of refined copper is not significant [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to maintain range - bound fluctuations due to strong cost support and supply disruptions, as well as demand fluctuations and delivery pressure [6][27]. - Lead prices are expected to operate weakly in a wide range in the short term due to factors such as flat lead ore inventory, changing lead production rates, and low social inventory [9]. - Zinc prices may give back some gains after the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment, although there are factors such as zinc ore de - stocking and production cuts by smelting enterprises [11]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have an uncertain short - term outlook with de - stocking narrowing at the end of the peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term due to factors such as expected decline in ore prices, over - capacity in the smelting end, and approaching cost lines [21]. - Stainless steel prices are in a tight - balance pattern and lack a clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: US inflation data in November was lower than expected, the dollar index was stable, and copper prices fluctuated. LME copper inventories decreased, domestic electrolytic copper social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and the spot market had weak trading. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 91,800 - 93,800 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M contract in the range of 11,600 - 11,850 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum (Cast Aluminum Alloy) - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy main contract rose, with changes in positions, trading volume, and warehouse receipts. The price difference between contracts narrowed, and domestic and imported ADC12 prices increased. Domestic mainstream market aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased, while factory inventories increased [5][26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to maintain range - bound fluctuations [6][27]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also increased. There were data on lead ingot prices, refined - scrap price differences, inventories, and basis [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lead prices are expected to operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [9]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price increased. There were data on zinc ingot prices, basis, inventories, and import and export conditions [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc prices may give back some gains after the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment [11]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was affected by high prices, resulting in weak trading [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market had stable premium and discount. Nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices weakened [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term Shanghai nickel price is expected to operate in the range of 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, while the futures contract price decreased. Production increased slightly, and social inventories decreased [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lithium carbonate prices have an uncertain short - term outlook, and it is recommended to wait and see. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 103,000 - 109,600 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index was flat, with changes in positions. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import profit and loss was negative. Futures warehouse receipts decreased, and ore prices were stable [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract rose, with changes in positions. Spot prices in different markets had different trends, and raw material prices also changed. Futures inventories decreased, and social inventories decreased slightly [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Stainless steel prices are in a tight - balance pattern and lack a clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see [24].