供需结构改善，工业硅企稳反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the Fed will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US government's vision to revitalize traditional manufacturing will restrict the growth rate of the global photovoltaic industry. China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan [3][57]. - In terms of supply, Xinjiang's production share has increased this year, while Sichuan and Yunnan's operations are generally low. New production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu has been released steadily. The number of operating furnaces has decreased, and social inventory is high. Silicon enterprises' production profits turned positive in the second half of this year. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons. Domestic cumulative production is expected to drop to 4.15 million tons this year and further to 4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [3][57]. - In terms of demand, with the establishment of a new polysilicon platform company, a new sustainable industry ecosystem will be built. The production capacity of downstream battery and component markets will be further compressed, and photovoltaic terminal installations will enter a self - adaptive deceleration period. The silicone industry will enter a new balance cycle through production cuts. The aluminum alloy industry's production growth is limited due to the decline in construction and building materials demand. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down in 2026, with a projected 3% decline in consumption growth [3][58]. - In 2026, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon is expected to improve. The anti - involution policy will be further implemented. The photovoltaic industry will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and the futures price center may stabilize and recover. The main operating range of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to be between 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3][58]. Summary by Directory 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures price dropped from a maximum of 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the second half of the year, due to supply contraction and improved market sentiment, the price gradually recovered. By December 12, the main contract SI2605 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2595 yuan/ton compared to the end of last year, a decline of 23.6%. The annual price fluctuated between 6,990 - 11,130 yuan/ton [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Fourth Plenary Session Focuses on High - Quality Development and Domestic Demand - China's traditional manufacturing faces internal and external pressures. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic development, including promoting high - quality development, technological innovation, and the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. The development of artificial intelligence is also emphasized in multiple aspects [11][12]. Dual Loose Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Stable Economic Growth - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2. The economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with rapid industrial growth, stable employment, and increasing resident income. In 2026, China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [14]. Fundamental Analysis Increasing Northern Production Share and Profit Turnaround in Southwest - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a trend of low - to - high, while Sichuan and Yunnan increased production from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. In the context of anti - involution policies, the supply side has contracted [16]. Only 700,000 Tons of New Production Capacity Planned in 2026 - As of now, China's total industrial silicon production capacity is 7.879 million tons, with an effective capacity of 7.846 million tons. The new and expanded production capacity projects from the second half of 2025 to 2026 have significantly slowed down. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons, a significant drop compared to 2025. It is expected that the total production capacity in 2026 will reach about 8.3 million tons, with a decreasing growth rate [27][30]. High Social Inventory and Stable Export Growth - As of December 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon reached 561,000 tons, a 4.6% increase from the end of last year. The exchange's average warehouse receipt inventory was between 150,000 - 180,000 tons. From January to October, the export volume was 607,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, the domestic social inventory is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, and the export growth rate is expected to be 5 - 8% [36][37]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis New Polysilicon Platform Company and Anti - Involution in Photovoltaic Industry - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon production was 1.206 million tons, a 27.3% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will focus on capacity regulation, price monitoring, and eliminating backward production capacity. The industry is expected to enter a new balance cycle [40][43]. Silicone Industry Enters a New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's silicone DMC production was 2.272 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. After the industry's anti - involution meeting in November, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and joint price support. The DMC price has rebounded from 11,050 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton. In 2026, the silicone production is expected to grow limitedly and enter a sustainable development model [44]. Limited Growth in Aluminum Alloy Production - From January to October, China's aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. Affected by the real estate industry, the demand for aluminum processing products was weak. In the fourth quarter, there were both production increases and decreases in different regions. It is expected that the aluminum alloy production will maintain a low growth rate in 2026 [46]. Slowing Demand Growth but More Balanced Supply - Demand in 2026 - In 2026, the demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the supply - demand structure will be more balanced. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline by about 3% [47][48]. 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Fed will slow down the interest rate cut, and the US government's policy will restrict the global photovoltaic industry. China will implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The supply of industrial silicon will contract, and the demand growth will slow down. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and the futures price may stabilize and recover, with a main operating range of 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [57][58].